396
FXUS65 KBOI 160244
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
844 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.DISCUSSION...Thin high clouds continue to move over the region
this evening as we await the cold front early Friday. Temps will
be 10-15 degrees above normal Thursday, but then cool down into
the 60s and 70s for most folks for the following week plus. All
this is handled well by the current forecast, and no changes are
planned at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear, except some slight reduction
in visibility in vicinity of prescribed fires in/near the
southwest Idaho mountains. Surface winds: generally W to NW 5-15
kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds with some hazy skies near the
foothills due to smoke from prescribed burns in the Boise
Mountains. Surface winds: generally NW 4-8 kt, except periods of
light and variable overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...The upper level
ridge will continue to build into the region through tomorrow,
bringing above normal temperatures to the area, with highs
approaching 90F in the Lower Treasure Valley. Light and variable
winds will continue for most of the day, with some elevated
westerly winds each afternoon through tomorrow in the Snake
River Valley. This combined with relatively high mixing heights
should keep the smoke from prescribed fires mainly isolated to
higher terrain, although some haze will likely linger in the
foothills of the Boise Mountains until Friday morning.

A shift in weather will begin as a weak shortwave trough moves
into the region on Friday morning. This will bring a dry cold
front passage on Friday morning, with a very low chance of
showers (<10%) over the Central ID Mountains. Winds will elevate
slightly with the frontal passage Friday morning, but increase
substantially behind the front by Friday afternoon, with gusts
to nearly 50 mph in the Camas Prairie/Magic Valley and on
ridgetops in higher terrain. The Treasure Valley will likely see
westerly winds sustained to 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph on
Friday afternoon. This front will also bring a cooling trend,
with temperatures back to near normal or slightly below normal
for the region.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...As the shortwave
pushes east this weekend, the progressive upper level lows over
Canada will continue to bring cool northwest flow over the
region through the weekend. Most of the precipitation will stay
to the north, although breezy winds will continue each afternoon
through Monday. Temperatures will continue to be near normal
through Saturday. A stronger upper level trough will move
through the region on Sunday, bringing a more substantial cold
front with much cooler temperatures and a slight chance of
showers (20% chance) to the West Central Mountains. A few
snowflakes are possible above 6000-7000 feet.

After Monday, conditions appear to be dry with near normal
temperatures ahead of an other strong upper level low moving
into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday. This would be the next
significant chance of precipitation over the valleys, with
60% of long range ensembles showing precipitation in the Boise
area by next Wednesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA