143
FXUS65 KBOI 180902
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
302 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...A weak upper-level
trough will linger over the region today, maintaining the
chance for precipitation, especially across the higher terrain
of southwest Idaho. This afternoon, there appears to be
sufficient instability for thunderstorms to develop alongside
the showers, with the best chance for thunderstorms across the
West Central and Boise Mountains. Temperatures will rise about
10 degrees from yesterday`s highs, reaching the low 70s in the
lower valleys.

The weak through will persist over the Intermountain West
through Thursday. Temperatures will continue to warm, increasing
by another 10 degrees on Wednesday. However, a weak low pressure
system passing to the north will limit the warming to around 5
degrees on Thursday. By Thursday, temperatures will reach about
5-8 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Persistent southwest flow
aloft and steadily increasing heights among all guidance
supports dry conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.
Confidence is high that valley max temperatures will reach the
upper 90s by the weekend. Thickness values support highs greater
than or equal to 100 degrees for portions of the lower Snake
Plain including Boise, but models are struggling to get quite
that high. Currently, there`s a 30% chance for 100 or higher in
that area on both Saturday and Sunday. Temps should drop to
about normal Monday/Tuesday as an upper trough moving through
the PacNW, though guidance disagrees on the track of the trough
slightly so confidence is low in the amount of cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers will continue overnight in the
mountains. Fog is possible near KMYL this morning, though confidence
is low. VFR and becoming mostly clear by Tuesday evening. Wednesday
afternoon isolated showers develop in remote parts of the West
Central Mtns and Baker County. Surface winds: variable 12 kt or
less. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Diurnal surface winds prevail,
SE 2-6 kt becoming NW 5-10 kt a few hours after sunrise.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM