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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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797 FXUS62 KCHS 130553 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 153 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The forecast remains on track. No changes needed at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday and Friday: Aloft, h5 shortwave energy embedded in a weak longwave trough will slowly shift across the Southeast United States while a large ridge centered across the Central United States strengthens and expands east toward the area through early weekend. At the sfc, a nearly stationary front will linger well offshore, becoming a focusing mechanism of low pressure attempting to develop beyond the Gulf Stream while slowly drifting further offshore. The pattern will support gradually warming conditions late week as the ridge nudges across the area and ample sfc heating takes place. A few showers and/or thunderstorms will also be possible across coastal counties, where low-lvl moisture lingers and perhaps strongest convergence occurs near the land/water interface. High temps will range in the upper 80s/lower 90s Thursday, then low-mid 90s Friday away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows will also remain mild, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday night, then lower to middle 70s Friday night. Saturday: Any area of low pressure offshore becomes more diffuse and/or shifts to the northeast away from the region in advance of a cold front approaching the local area from the west-northwest during the day. Aloft, a large/expansive ridge will become directly centered across the Southeast United States while a weak downslope flow aloft takes place. Strong subsidence associated with these features will help keep fropa dry and mix out sfc dewpts into the mid-upper 60s for areas away from the coast heading into peak diurnal heating. Strong sfc heating under mostly sunny skies along with compressional heating associated with the arriving front will support the warmest temps of the week. 1000-850 mb thickness values suggest high temps in the mid-upper 90s across most areas away from the coast, and even a few locations touching 100 degrees well inland across southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. These temps along with mid-upper 60 sfc dewpts support heat index values ranging between 100-105 degrees, falling just shy of Heat Advisory criteria. However, a sea breeze circulation shifting inland could temporarily nudge dewpt/humidity levels higher during peak heating and will need to be closely monitored for potential Heat Advisory conditions. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deep layered ridge across the Southeastern U.S. will prevail through early next week. Surface high pressure will set up across the Northeast, resulting in return flow helping to wrap the deeper Gulf moisture around the backside of the high and into the Deep South. The advection of moisture/instability will support scattered showers and thunderstorms early next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Temperatures should begin to slightly decrease and trend toward near normal or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 6Z TAFs: An area of low pressure will develop well off the GA and SC coast through the TAF period. Circulation around the low will provide the terminals with steady NE winds through this morning. A sea breeze is forecast to develop early this afternoon and advance quickly inland across KCHS/KJZI/KSAV by 17Z, yielding ENE winds gusting near 20 kts. Instability will increase across the coastal counties in the wake of the sea breeze. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near the terminals this afternoon. Each TAF will feature a mention of VCSH. Winds will settle to 5 to 10 kts by 0Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Saturday, although brief flight restrictions can not be ruled out for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. Tempo flight restriction chances increase Sunday with greater coverage of showers/thunderstorms near a front departing the area to the south, followed brief flight restriction possibilities on Monday with afternoon showers/thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Tonight: Moderate northeast winds then prevail tonight as low pressure begins to gradually deepen off the Southeast coast. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop over the coastal waters late tonight. Seas increase a bit to 2-4 ft overnight with increasing ENE windswell, with an underlying modest medium period S to SE swell continuing as well. Thursday through Monday: Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels as sfc high pressure extends across the region from the north while a nearly stationary front becomes the focusing mechanism of a more enhanced coastal trough and/or area of low pressure developing further offshore by the weekend. In general, northeast winds around 15 kt will become more southerly around 10 kt or less as the coastal trough/low drifts further offshore and/or to the northeast and away from the region well ahead of a front approaching from the west-northwest during the weekend. The arriving front will be slow to shift south of the area early next week while high pressure spreads across coastal waters in its wake. East- northeast winds around 15 kt should return across most waters behind the front. Seas should average between 2-4 ft late week into early next week. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NED MARINE...