272
FXUS61 KCLE 062052
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
452 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface troughing will linger across the Eastern Great Lakes through
Friday. A low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes
on Saturday, followed by another cold front on Sunday into Monday.
High pressure will build back in across the region by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain has developed along a secondary cold front this afternoon and
is expected to exit east of the area within the next several hours.
This is a result of a narrow corridor of deeper moisture along and
east of the I-77 corridor evident on the split-window difference
satellite imagery in addition to corresponding higher dewpoint
surface observations. Can`t rule out a stray lightning strike over
the next hour, especially near the OH/PA border, but confidence
remains low given limited instability.

Otherwise, cooler weather is on the way across the region over the
next couple of days, including the chance for lake-effect rain
showers on Friday as 850 mb temperatures drop between 4 to 6C,
resulting in a nearly 15C temperature difference between the lake
and 850 mb temperatures. Diurnal cu in addition to lake-effect
clouds should result in mostly cloudy conditions across the region
on Friday, with the highest chances for rain found across NE OH into
NW PA downwind of Lake Erie. Widespread cloudiness should limit
temperatures to the upper 60s and lower 70s in addition to blustery
conditions at times with periodic westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30
mph at times. Lake-effect rain should begin to subside by late
Friday night as an upper-level ridge builds east across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is likely on Saturday as a high pressure ridge at the
surface and aloft builds E`ward across our CWA. However, a few
showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and
early evening, over/near Lake Erie, as moist isentropic ascent
precedes a shortwave trough axis approaching from the Upper Midwest
and releases weak instability, including elevated instability. Late
afternoon highs should reach the 70`s. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night as the shortwave
trough presses E`ward across our CWA, a reinforcing cold front
sweeps SE`ward across northern OH and NW PA, and these lifting
mechanisms encounter sufficient atmospheric moisture and
instability. The front-related showers and storms may be lake-
enhanced over and just southeast of Lake Erie amidst sufficient low-
level moisture and 850 mb temperatures around 8C over ~18C Lake
Erie. Overnight lows should reach mainly the 50`s around daybreak
Sunday as a colder air mass follows the front.

W`erly to NW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances are
expected to affect our region on Sunday through Sunday night as
surface troughing becomes established over the eastern Great Lakes
and Upper OH Valley. Primarily dry weather is expected in our CWA.
However, lake-enhanced rain is possible over/generally southeast of
Lake Erie on Sunday, especially in the morning, amidst a
sufficiently cold/moist low/mid-level atmospheric column and the
seeder-feeder process. Pure lake-effect rain showers and
thunderstorms are then possible over/generally southeast of Lake
Erie late Sunday evening into Monday morning as low-level moisture
remains abundant and 850 mb temperatures cool further to near 4C to
5C over ~18C Lake Erie, which will allow at least appreciable lake-
induced CAPE to materialize. Sunday`s late afternoon highs should
reach the upper 60`s to lower 70`s in NW PA and the 70`s in northern
OH. Overnight lows should reach mainly the upper 40`s to mid 50`s
around daybreak Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A prominent shortwave trough embedded in NW`erly flow aloft sweeps
SE`ward across our region on Monday as surface troughing lingers and
another reinforcing cold front sweeps SE`ward through our CWA.
Isolated showers are expected to accompany the passage of this
disturbance due to moist isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave`s
axis. In addition, the same thermodynamic environment mentioned in
the short-term discussion should support lake-effect rain showers
over/generally southeast of Lake Erie Monday morning. Daytime highs
should reach the lower 60`s to lower 70`s. Fair weather is likely
Monday night through Tuesday as a ridge at the surface and aloft
builds E`ward and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence.
Overnight lows should reach the mid 40`s to mid 50`s around daybreak
Tuesday morning. Late afternoon highs should then reach the upper
60`s to upper 70`s on Tuesday.

Periods of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Tuesday night through at least the morning hours of
Thursday as multiple shortwave disturbances move generally E`ward
through the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley and surface
troughing becomes re-established across our region. Odds favor fair
weather later on Thursday as another ridge at the surface and aloft
attempts to build from the west. Overnight lows should reach mainly
the upper 40`s to upper 50`s Tuesday night and mainly the 50`s to
lower 60`s Wednesday night. Highs are expected to reach the 70`s and
80`s Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon as net low-level WAA
impacts our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. Could see a few showers and
perhaps an isolated lightning strike over the next few hours
this afternoon at CAK/YNG, though confidence is low. Widespread
~4kft ceilings are expected to arrive later tonight into Friday
as a chilly air mass arrives across the Great Lakes, resulting
in some lake-effect clouds and perhaps scattered lake-effect
rain showers. Went with vcsh across the eastern TAF sites at
this time for Friday as confidence remains spatially low on
non- VFR TAF impacts.

Winds are generally out of the west early this afternoon, 10 to
15 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds will
slightly decrease tonight to around 10 knots before increasing
to 15 to 20 knots by Friday morning and early afternoon with
gusts of 25 to perhaps 30 knots possible at times.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic rain showers/isolated
thunderstorms on Friday. Non-VFR possible again in scattered
rain/isolated thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Maumee Bay to Ripley
starting today or Friday and continuing into Saturday. A Beach
Hazards Statement has also been issued along the lakeshore from Erie
County, OH to Erie County, PA. Please see the text of these products
for the details.

A reinforcing cold front sweeps E`ward across Lake Erie through this
evening and causes SW`erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to
W`erly. Waves of 1 to 3 feet with occasional 4 footers are expected
through this evening. Net surface troughing is then expected to
linger over Lake Erie through Monday. Winds around 15 to 25 knots
are forecast to vary between SW`erly and NW`erly on Friday through
Sunday. Waves as large as 2 to 4 feet are expected in the western
basin and as large as 4 to 8 feet elsewhere. Future adjustments to
the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statements are likely. On
Sunday night through Monday, winds are expected to become NW`erly to
N`erly and ease gradually to 10 to 15 knots. Waves subside gradually
to 3 feet or less. Light and variable winds are expected Monday
night through Tuesday as a ridge builds from the western Great
Lakes. Waves should subside to 2 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for OHZ009.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Saturday morning for OHZ010-011.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Saturday afternoon for OHZ012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Friday through Saturday
     evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for LEZ147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for
     LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Jaszka