Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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664 FXUS64 KCRP 102048 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 348 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate heat risk expected for south Texas Tuesday - Chance (30-40%) Thunderstorms in the Victoria Crossroads this evening A weak 500 mb shortwave is moving through South Texas this afternoon which kicked off this morning/afternoon`s convection, and small 500mb cut off low in eastern New Mexico as well. The troughs are squashing the ridge that was to build into the region this week, and has kept the temperatures lower the last two days, and even kept the humidity down a bit. The earlier convection helped to over turn the lower atmosphere in most of the forecast area. However, the outflow boundary from the convection stalled as it moved into the Refugio and Victoria Counties. With the stalled boundary there, isolated showers have started to fire in Refugio and Calhoun counties, so have low chance pops (20-40%) for the next couple hours as the sea breeze begins to move into the region. However, as the sun sets, and we lose peak heating, will expect the convection to diminish. Th rest of the night will follow the pattern of the last few nights with some lower clouds/fog that develops in the band of the Brush Country around Alice, to Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise partly cloudy skies. Tuesday, the bulk of the day looks dry with the models showing convection starting in the Hill Country and going southeast into the Victoria Crossroads during Tuesday evening. The rain looks to end overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Key Messages: - Low chances for rain Wednesday, then again next week After a shortwave moves through the region in the short term, a mid- level trough will develop in it`s wake extending from the Mid- Atlantic into the Southern Plains. This will maintain northeasterly flow aloft for much of the week which in turn will help keep out temperatures and heat indices in check. Towards the end of the extended forecast, global models are showing an area of tropical moisture moving northward into the Gulf. With sufficient moisture and lingering vorticity from the shortwave in the short term, have maintained low chances (20-35%) for rain Wednesday. Due to uncertainty on where the tropical moisture towards the end of the forecast might end up going, introduced low end rain chances (20- 35%) late next weekend into early next week. Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures will keep heat indices tolerable for the month of June. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to remain under 100 degrees for much of the CWA Wednesday through Saturday, even for Laredo and Cotulla! Therefore, probabilities of heat indices exceeding 110 degrees will remain low between 10-25% through Saturday before increasing to 40-55% late this weekend into early next week. Probabilities for heat indices above 115 degrees are much lower with a less than 10% chance through Saturday and a 20-40% chance late this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Morning convection is offshore. There is still low to moderate chance for the afternoon convection to refire, more likely near LRD and COT. Clouds are diminishing as the subsidence behind the storms is helping to keep the region somewhat dry. Otherwise, the pattern hasn`t changed much since yesterday, with the VFR to MVFR CIGs/VSBYs overnight/early Tuesday morning, and then clearing by 16z/Tue. && .MARINE... Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected each afternoon with winds decreasing to weaker levels overnight. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will be present each afternoon, mainly over the Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 94 78 95 78 / 40 0 10 10 Victoria 94 74 94 75 / 30 10 20 30 Laredo 100 78 101 78 / 20 10 0 10 Alice 97 75 98 76 / 30 0 0 10 Rockport 94 80 92 81 / 40 10 10 10 Cotulla 97 78 101 78 / 30 10 0 20 Kingsville 96 76 97 77 / 40 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 92 81 91 82 / 40 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL/86 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...JSL