088
FXUS64 KCRP 072330
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Mid-level high pressure is in control through the entirety of the
short term forecast. This equates to quiet, but warm weather. 850
temps have come down a bit and dewpoints today have been lower
than yesterday which has resulted in HI values mainly below 110
and expect that to continue tomorrow, thus no expected heat
advisory. Temperatures are still expected to top 100 for the Brush
country, and be in the 90s east. Overnight low temperatures will
remain in the 70s for much of the area to around 80 near the coast
tonight and tomorrow night. Could see a few hours of fog again
toward Saturday morning, mainly in the band from Falfurrias
through Alice and up toward Victoria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected across the Rio
Grande Plains to the Coastal Plains and minor to moderate impacts
across the Victoria Crossroads Sunday and Monday.

It looks like the 500 mb remains for Sunday, before breaking down on
Sunday night/Monday morning. 500 mb wave looks to move through north
Texas, and tries to get some rain down to VCT(on the GFS and ECMWF).
However, the ensembles and NAM don`t support this so it looks like
the NBM has 10-20% near VCT before it moves out, and then the focus
is for possible convection near LRD (20-35%) Monday night. Tuesday,
the ridge slowly builds back into the region but really doesn`t get
in here until Wednesday. However, it builds enough on Tuesday that
it keeps the rain out of the region through Thursday. Friday, it
looks like the cut off low that set up over Louisiana Thursday
night, tries to get a few showers into our offshore waters (20-60
NM) before moving on.

Heat...Looking at the national heat risk map, we are in the moderate
to Major categories from Sunday through Friday. Sunday and Monday,
our heat indices peak at about 112 for a couple of hours in the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains (inland Nueces and inland
Kleberg). Tuesday, the 500 mb trough is over us and slowly moving
out, and helps to suppress the temperatures a few degrees,
especially in the Brush Country (3-5 degrees). Wednesday, the
temperatures bounce back and the heat indices start to touch around
110, with Thursday and Friday getting to 110-112 along the Coastal
Bend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Tonight expecting MVFR for VCT/CRP and down to IFR at ALI due to
lower ceilings and/or fog. Have included HZ for LRD as NASA
forecast has haze flowing up the Rio Grande. VFR conditions should
return by tomorrow afternoon along with typical diurnal breezy
southeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Weak onshore flow today will increase to weak to moderate levels
by tonight. Weak to moderate onshore flow will then persist
through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  93  78  94 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          73  94  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            75 100  77 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74  97  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          80  91  81  92 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           76 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75  95  78  96 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  91  82  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...BF/80