Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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017 FXUS61 KCTP 081736 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 136 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent Northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a couple chances for showers on Sunday (one during the monring and the second occurring mainly over the northern Mountains), expect a reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend toward the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered to broken cu have developed across much of central PA this morning within a moist but deepening PBL. As the vertical mixing increases to around 5 KFT AGL this afternoon, drier air aloft will mix into the PBL, resulting in a decrease in the low level cu later in the day. By that same time, upper level cirrus will be working in from the west. The deeper mixing will also help to transport WNW wind gusts of 20-25 mph to the surface through the late afternoon hours. High temps will range form near 70 in the north to the low 80s in the south. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers late tonight into early Sunday morning as another shortwave trough and cold front moves through the region. The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the state, where they are progged to begin around midnight. Rain showers will then move eastward through central PA between midnight and 8 AM Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. Most locations will see less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the majority of the measurable precip falling prior to 8 AM. A few showers will linger into the mid-morning hours across the Lower Susq. Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day. There could be some isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers in the northern tier during the afternoon and evening (PoPs less than 40 pct), otherwise the afternoon looks dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 in the southern tier. Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days. The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front dropping SE from the Glakes will bring more clouds than sun, along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily the Central and NW 2/3 of the state. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1730 UTC Sat, all TAF sites were VFR. SCT-BKN cu persists across much of central PA, with bases between 3000 and 5000 ft. A decrease in cu coverage is expected by late afternoon as some drier air begins to mix into the BL from above. Wind gusts of 20-30 kts will continue through the afternoon. Winds taper off Saturday night as ceilings lower ahead of a fast moving cold front that will bring a chance of a few showers (mainly during the predawn hours Sunday). IFR ceilings are likely at BFD by 09z Sunday with MVFR probable during the predawn hours at JST and UNV, and possible at AOO and IPT. LLWS conditions may also develop for a brief period of time ahead of the cold front during the late night and predawn hours, mainly for central and western TAF sites. Conds will trend toward VFR areawide by late morning Sunday, although a scattered afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA will be poss for BFD and the northern tier. Outlook... Mon...MVFR cigs poss, mainly north Tue-Thu...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen AVIATION...Banghoff/Colbert