Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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368 FXUS65 KCYS 060832 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 232 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm weather will continue through late week, with widespread highs in the 80s and lower 90s on Thursday and Friday. - Saturday through Monday will see increasing chances for afternoon and evening showers and weak thunderstorms. - Sunday and Monday will see the greatest coverage of late day showers and thunderstorms, while Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Surface cold front moved through Cheyenne last night around 10 PM and is now being analyzed across northeast Colorado to Laramie to Riverton this morning. Surface high pressure over northeast Wyoming behind the front. Skies are clear across the CWA this morning and are expected to remain so throughout the day. Challenge today will be temperatures. We got into the low 90s across the southern Panhandle yesterday with 700mb temperatures of +12 to +14C. They fell behind the front this morning...but are expected to climb back to near what they were yesterday. So went with similar afternoon highs as we had yesterday. Upper ridge axis moves across the CWA this evening as the cold front shifts east into Nebraska. Going to see increasing low level humidity Friday...which will aid in two things. First for fire weather...afternoon humidity will be much higher over today. Second...increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late Friday afternoon as GFS/ECMWF and SREF are all in good agreement on showers/storms developing around 00Z Saturday. This moisture sticks around into Saturday for what looks to be another round of afternoon and evening showers and storms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Saturday night/Sunday...Ridging aloft becomes more pronounced across Wyoming, though with west flow aloft continuing and adequate low and mid level moisture along with low level upslope lift, we expect scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, primarily south of a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than Saturday with abundant cloud cover, with 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius yielding high temperatures in the 70s. Monday...West northwest flow aloft develops and with plenty of low and mid level moisture available, scattered late day showers and thunderstorms will be on tap again. Temperatures slightly warmer than Sunday with less cloud coverage. Tuesday...Northwest flow aloft remains, though with increasing heights aloft along with warmer temperatures, and a decrease in low and mid level moisture, we should see less coverage of late day showers and thunderstorms. Slightly warmer with more sunshine expected. Wednesday...Even warmer as the flow aloft turns westerly, and with 700 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius, maximum temperatures will be in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Warmer temperatures aloft will increase the convective inhibition, and with less low and mid level moisture around, only isolated late day showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly near the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1059 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions expected for the 06Z TAF period. Winds have already started to decrease and most terminals will have calm winds overnight. Winds are not expected to pick up much tomorrow, likely remaining calm for most terminals. Clear skies expected for tomorrow, but some high clouds may return late in the TAF period. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...AM