897
FXUS63 KDDC 132231
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Monday.

- The next best chance of scattered thunderstorms is Tuesday.

- South winds will continue to prevail through next week, along
  with warmer than normal afternoon temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

The quiet late summer weather regime continues with no impacts,
today through the weekend. Elevated south to southeast winds
will continue each afternoon. Diurnal temperature ranges will
remain constant, given benign synoptic flow and no air mass
exchanges. Sunrise temperatures in the lower 60s will continue,
along with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and lower
90s.

The next strong Pacific trough, with a 556 dm closed midlevel
cyclone, is expected to be near San Francisco 7 am Monday, and
be centered over Nevada 7 pm Monday. Still no changes in
sensible weather Monday, just a continuation of the same theme,
elevated south winds and warm, above normal afternoon
temperatures in the lower 90s. The ridge axis between the
remnants of Francine and the Nevada trough is forecast to be
east of SW KS by peak heating, with the leading edge of SWly
midlevel flow expected to arrive from the west. Several days of
persistent SEly boundary layer flow through the weekend and
Monday will easily maintain at least lower 60s dewpoints, and
some at least modest instability is expected by Monday
afternoon. Forcing will not be great, but can`t rule out a storm
or two. 12z GEFS ensemble probability of QPF > 0.1 inch is only
10-20% at any given location; in other words, most locations
will remain dry Monday.

The potential for scattered thunderstorms will increase Tuesday,
as the main closed cyclone ejects into the northern Rockies. Jet
energy and embedded shortwaves in the improving SWly midlevel
flow will overspread the high plains by peak heating,
interacting with the expected dryline where models suggest
scattered convection. NBM pops in the chance/scattered category
favoring Tuesday evening look appropriate for now. This is not a
pattern that favors widespread meaningful rainfall, but rather
will need to monitor for severe hail/outflow wind potential from
the strongest storms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability and
wind shear appear supportive of supercells, but not much more
can be said 4 days out. EPS ensemble probability of QPF > 0.10
inch is only 20-30%, typical of the scattered nature of
convective QPF.

The initial trough ejects into Canada Wednesday, but the trough
across western North America is immediately reloaded by another
shortwave that dives into the southern Great Basin by Thursday.
This evolution will force the persistent pattern of
unseasonably warm afternoons and elevated south winds to
continue. The moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico (dewpoints
at or above 60) will also be maintained, keeping the dryline in
place. As such, at least isolated thunderstorms are probable
each afternoon and/or evening Wednesday through Friday. This is
not a forecast of three days of rain; rather a convectively
active pattern is evident with thunderstorm opportunities each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with mostly clear
skies. Winds will generally be from the southeast through
tomorrow. Wind gusts above 20 knots are possible late tomorrow
morning into tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Hovorka_42