078
FXUS63 KDTX 100805
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
405 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions for the first half of the week.

- Cool today with a warming trend into mid-week.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The passage of the frontal boundary yesterday has brought a cool
northerly flow to Michigan, which will reside between a high
amplitude ridge to the west and trough to the east. An area of
overcast low clouds is spreading southward with the cold advection
this morning. Expect these clouds to mix out by the afternoon given
the shallow nature of this moisture. Mostly sunny skies will prevail
by the afternoon, but the cooler airmass characterized by 850mb
temperatures around 4-6C will keep afternoon highs below normal
today. Most of the area will be in 60s with areas along the Lake
Huron shoreline likely holding in the 50s. Mixing depths approach
5kft, but lower level flow has decreased quite a bit from yesterday.
Expecting the northerly winds to stay below 20 mph. Sprawling
surface high pressure building into the Great Lakes today will ensure
dry conditions.

Mid/upper level ridge axis will move over the central Great Lakes
Tuesday with the surface high pressure still in place. This will
mark the beginning of the return flow and help daytime high
temperatures tomorrow return to the 70s under mostly clear skies.
Tuesday night into early Wednesday will see the early stages of
moisture returning into southeast Michigan ahead of a shortwave and
weakening frontal boundary. The shortwave will move overhead during
the day Wednesday. Overall moisture and lack of forcing should
result in mainly a boost in cloud cover with limited precipitation
chances for Wednesday. Outgoing forecast will remain dry.

Greater warm air advection within the west-southwest flow aloft will
support the notable warming trend during the mid to late week
period. By Thursday, temperatures within the arriving thermal ridge
will be upwards of 13-16C and support daytime highs climbing into
the 80s. Moisture is also expected to improve further Wednesday
night into Thursday as 850 mb moisture transport helps usher in
Precipitable Water values of 1.25 to 1.50 inches. Ensembles showing
good improvement in instability on Thursday while increasing wind
fields bring decent shear across Michigan. Models advertise a wave
passing within the energetic westerly flow of the upper jet across
the northern US. This brings the more appreciable chance at rain and
thunderstorms Thursday into Friday, though there are still some
details to hash out in regards to the evolution of the event. The end
of this forecast period points toward an even greater warming trend
and a signal for well above normal temperatures again early next
week with highs possible reaching the 90s on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...

Modest northerly flow, generally gusting to around 20kts, continues
through the majority of the day today despite high pressure starting
to expand over the central Great Lakes. Small craft advisories
remain in effect around the Thumb through this evening as higher
wave action is drawn into the nearshore waters. Aforementioned high
becomes fully established over the Great Lakes tonight leading to
dry conditions and light wind through the midweek period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1126 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

AVIATION...

A region of MVFR based clouds across northern and central Michigan
is forecast to traverse Se Mi from north to south during the night.
This low level moisture is residing under a post frontal inversion.
While the bases may initially be MVFR, persistent cold air advection
will increase mixing depths during the course of the morning. This
will lead to a trend in cloud bases toward low end MVFR. A push of
dry air from the north will then lead to the way for clearing skies
Mon afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the
TAF period.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet overnight into Monday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....SC


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