615
FXUS64 KEPZ 092341
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Thunderstorm chances continue again tomorrow with the focus being
over the Sacramento Mtns and eastern portions of the area. Low
end storm chances continue the remainder of the work week for the
area mountains. Otherwise, afternoon breeziness continues with
very hot temperatures in the lowlands this week. Wednesday through
Friday will be very hot with much of the desert lowlands seeing
triple digits. Thursday will be the hottest day of the forecast
with El Paso forecasted to reach around 109F as well as portions
of the Rio Grande Valley in far west TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Outflows from the expected thunderstorms east of the Sacs this
afternoon will allow for a decent push of moisture into the area
later tonight. Dewpoints max out at around 55F for far eastern
portions of the CWA with 40F dewpoints possibly pushing as far
west as the Continental Divide. This will help set the stage for
thunderstorms tomorrow, but appears to stay limited to the Sacs
and eastern areas. We can probably expect storms to fire in the
CWA but will begin moving eastward, leaving much of the area dry.
Still expecting gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms and perhaps
even some small hail. However, CAPE is lacking (around a few
hundred J/kg) and wind shear is relatively weak. After Monday, a
cutoff low west of Baja California and another low over the Mid-
Atlantic/northeast CONUS will allow for a ridge of high pressure
to build in bringing very hot temperatures. The dryline will
continue to slosh back and forth over eastern portions of the CWA
each day, which will allow for storm chances in the area
mountains. However, the building high pressure will help suppress
storms for the most part... which isn`t great for storm chances.

The biggest thing we`re watching is the upcoming heat this week.
Monday will be a "cooler" day but temperatures gradually warm up
each day through Thursday with Thursday being the hottest day of
the period. More than likely a heat advisory will be needed
Wednesday with El Paso reaching up near Excessive Heat Warning
criteria (forecasted high temp of 109F nearing 110F) Thursday. A
small dip in temperatures Friday and Saturday, but much of the
lowlands will continue to see upper 90s and low 100s for high
temps these days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

We will see VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The low end
gusty winds this afternoon have dropped off and we will see
generally light winds tonight. The one exception may be KELP,
where an outflow boundary may try and push across the airport
from the east between 02Z to 04Z. By Monday afternoon, we will see
the low end gusty west winds return to the region. We will see a
smattering of clouds this evening, but I do think our ceilings
will generally remain unlimited. We may see some mid and high
clouds on Monday, but again, our ceilings should continue to be
unlimited.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Elevated fire conditions continue through the week ahead with min
RHs staying at critical thresholds. The Sacramento Mtns may reach
to around 15-20% each day due to continued low end storm chances.
Dry lightning and gusty outflow winds can be expected near
thunderstorms. Light afternoon breezes continue each day with
Friday having the potential to be the breeziest which will elevate
fire conditions further that afternoon.

Early tomorrow morning and Tuesday morning overnight recoveries
will reach to around 60-90% for Hudspeth and Otero counties with
locations west of the Rio Grande seeing max RHs of around 20-30%.
This is thanks to the dryline sloshing back and forth through the
area each night/early morning. Winds will shift east/southeast on
the moist side of the dryline.

Otherwise, tracking hot temperatures this work week with Wed-Fri
being the hottest, especially Thursday. Ventilation rates will
stay very good to excellent through the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  99  73 103 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            62  93  64  96 /  10  20  10  10
Las Cruces               65  97  66 102 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo               60  93  62  98 /  20  30  10  10
Cloudcroft               47  70  48  75 /  30  60  10  20
Truth or Consequences    65  90  66  98 /  10  20  10  10
Silver City              58  88  60  93 /   0  10   0  10
Deming                   62  95  61 101 /   0  10   0   0
Lordsburg                61  95  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       70  96  69 101 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City                62  95  62 100 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Hancock             64  99  64 103 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               62  90  63  94 /  10  20  10  10
Fabens                   66  98  66 103 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  95  64 100 /   0  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  95  72 100 /  10  20  10  10
Jornada Range            59  94  61  99 /  10  20  10   0
Hatch                    60  95  61 101 /  10  20  10  10
Columbus                 67  95  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                64  93  64  98 /  20  30  10  10
Mayhill                  50  80  52  86 /  30  60  10  20
Mescalero                50  80  51  86 /  30  40  10  10
Timberon                 49  79  50  84 /  20  50  10  20
Winston                  52  83  55  91 /  10  30  10  10
Hillsboro                61  90  63  96 /  10  20   0  10
Spaceport                57  92  58  98 /  10  30  10  10
Lake Roberts             54  88  56  94 /  10  20   0  10
Hurley                   56  90  58  96 /   0  10   0   0
Cliff                    55  95  57 101 /   0  10   0   0
Mule Creek               60  90  62  95 /   0  10   0   0
Faywood                  59  89  61  95 /   0  10   0  10
Animas                   60  95  61 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  62  95  61  99 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  94  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               60  89  62  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice