463
FNUS54 KEPZ 181103
FWFEPZ

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for New Mexico and Far West Texas
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
Near-critical fire danger again today with southwest winds 10 to
20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds will be a bit lighter today
compared to yesterday, but similar direction. Excellent smoke
ventilation and transport to the NE. Active fires in LNF will burn
hottest on the northeast flanks where further growth is likely.
Pattern change expected Wednesday as moisture arrives from the
southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud coverage
Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday`s storm chance will be
limited to eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Strong outflows
from these storms will pose a risk of sudden wind shifts and
erratic fire behavior along active fire lines during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler
Thursday/Friday under ESE flow and Good ventilation. Min RH will
be much more favorable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon, with the best chance for wetting rains
over LNF and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monsoon season well
underway next week with daily storm chances over the high terrain
and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

...Percentages shown in the sky/weather portion reflect
sky cover amount...

...Mean elevations used to obtain mixing heights as follows:
Zone 110 - Reserve   (5900 ft)
Zone 111 - Deming    (4300 ft)
Zone 112 - Las Cruces(3900 ft)
Zone 113 - Ruidoso   (6900 ft)

Ventilation categories are determined by criteria established
by the state of New Mexico.


NMZ110-181815-
 Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
* Max temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....77-82.
*    Below 7500 ft....85-90.
*    24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....11-13 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....9-11 percent.
*    24 hr trend......2 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 16 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL increasing to 11400 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (191800 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
* Min temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....52-57.
*    Below 7500 ft....57-62.
*    24 hr trend......1 degree warmer.
* Max humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....32-37 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....29-34 percent.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 16 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
* Max temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....80-85.
*    Below 7500 ft....89-94.
* Min humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....10-12 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....9-11 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 17 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......9400 ft AGL increasing to 13700 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (231400 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 60 to 65. Highs 81 to 86. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows 60 to 65. Highs 77 to 82. Southeast winds around 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows 60 to 65. Highs 82 to 87. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

NMZ111-181815-
 Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
* Max temperature.....93-98.
*    24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........8-10 percent.
*    24 hr trend......3 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds around 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 18 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........5.
* Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL increasing to 12200 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (203600 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
* Min temperature.....61-65.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........29-34 percent.
*    24 hr trend......5 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 15 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........5.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
* Max temperature.....97-101.
* Min humidity........8-10 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                      southeast in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..South 12 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL increasing to 13900 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....South around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (204700 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Breezy. Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs near 90. East winds 15 to
20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Breezy. Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Highs 86 to 91. East winds
around 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 71. Highs in the lower to mid 90s. East
winds around 10 mph.

$$

NMZ112-181815-
 South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
* Max temperature.....94-99.
*    24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........6-8 percent.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 14 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL increasing to 12900 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (205200 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
* Min temperature.....63-68.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........24-29 percent.
*    24 hr trend......21 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph decreasing to
                      around 5 mph after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 16 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance
                      of showers and thunderstorms in the
                      afternoon.
* Max temperature.....96-101.
* Min humidity........11-16 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 17 mph.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......8100 ft AGL increasing to 14700 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (230500 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Not as warm. Mostly clear with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 66 to 71. Highs 84 to 89. Southeast winds
around 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Highs 79 to 84. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 64 to 69. Highs 88 to 93. Southeast winds
5 to 10 mph.

$$

NMZ113-181815-
 Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of smoke
                      after 1200.
* Max temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....77-82.
*    Below 7500 ft....88-93.
*    24 hr trend......2 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....10-14 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....7-9 percent.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 15 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......10000 ft AGL increasing to 13800 ft AGL in
                      the afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southwest around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (203800 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
* Min temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....52-57.
*    Below 7500 ft....58-63.
*    24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
* Max humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....32-37 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....40-45 percent.
*    24 hr trend......23 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 20 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of
                      showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....
*    Above 7500 ft....77-82.
*    Below 7500 ft....85-90.
* Min humidity........
*    Above 7500 ft....18-23 percent.
*    Below 7500 ft....20-25 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southeast winds around 10 mph
                      increasing to around 20 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 20 mph.
* Chc of precip.......40 percent.
* LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
* Haines index........6.
* Mixing height.......9900-11800 ft AGL.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (158600 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Not as warm. Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms
likely. Lows 57 to 62. Highs 70 to 75. Southeast winds around
15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Showers and thunderstorms. Lows 56 to 61. Highs 68 to
73. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Warmer. Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows 55 to 60. Highs 79 to 84. Southwest winds
around 5 mph.

$$

TXZ055-181815-
 Texas Fire Weather Zone 055
 El Paso County-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
* Max temperature.....96-100.
*    24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........6-11 percent.
*    24 hr trend......1 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 12 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........5.
* Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL increasing to 11700 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Very good (149900 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
* Min temperature.....67-71.
*    24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max humidity........25-30 percent.
*    24 hr trend......4 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 12 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........5.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance
                      of showers and thunderstorms in the
                      afternoon.
* Max temperature.....99-103.
* Min humidity........14-16 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southeast winds around 10 mph
                      increasing to around 20 mph in the afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 17 mph.
* Chc of precip.......20 percent.
* LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
* Haines index........5.
* Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL increasing to 14100 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 20 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (217900 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Not as warm. Breezy. Partly cloudy with chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s. East winds around 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs in the mid to upper 80s. East
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows near 70. Highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TXZ056-181815-
 Texas Fire Weather Zone 056
 Hudspeth County-
503 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.TODAY...
* Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
* Max temperature.....94-99.
*    24 hr trend......3 degrees cooler.
* Min humidity........7-9 percent.
*    24 hr trend......1 percent drier.
* 20-foot winds.......West winds around 10 mph.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southwest 12 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........5.
* Mixing height.......7100 ft AGL increasing to 12200 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....West around 15 knots.
* Vent category.......Very good (138500 knot-ft).

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
* Min temperature.....65-69.
*    24 hr trend......1 degree cooler.
* Max humidity........50-55 percent.
*    24 hr trend......25 percent wetter.
* 20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                      southeast after midnight.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..West 10 mph.
* Chc of precip.......0 percent.
* LAL.................1.
* Haines index........6.

.JUNETEENTH...
* Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent). Chance of
                      showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
* Max temperature.....94-99.
* Min humidity........22-27 percent.
* 20-foot winds.......Breezy. Southeast winds around 10 mph
                      increasing to east around 20 mph in the
                      afternoon.
* 10000 ft MSL winds..Southeast 22 mph.
* Chc of precip.......30 percent.
* LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
* Haines index........5.
* Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL increasing to 11900 ft AGL in the
                      afternoon.
* Transport winds.....Southeast around 25 knots.
* Vent category.......Excellent (193700 knot-ft).


.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...Not as warm. Breezy. Partly cloudy. Showers and
thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid to upper 60s. Highs 77 to
82. East winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the 60s. Highs 80 to 85. East winds around 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs 87 to 92. Southeast winds
5 to 10 mph.

$$

Dennhardt