952
FXUS62 KFFC 060612
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
212 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Remnant MCV/vortmax continues eastern progression through the CWA
and is currently almost centered in it. Some showers and storms fired
up primarily to the east of the feature in region of slight PVA
earlier this afternoon and will continue through east Georgia this
afternoon. Mild subsidence is likely occurring on the back side of
this feature and helping to suppress convection in portions of
western GA despite copious moisture and ample afternoon heating. Do
think we still could hit the convective T at some point in these
areas and have a few showers or rumbles of thunder, so maintained a
30 percent chances across much of the area outside of west central
Georgia which has been worked over from earlier convection. Given
upper levels are pretty warm, any convection that goes up likely
won`t be long lived, so severe threat is extremely low.

An initial front will approach the CWA tomorrow but models are
showing forcing for it waning and it stalling and mostly washing out
across the CWA. This means it won`t really provide much in the way of
lift via surface convergence, so model PoPs continue the trend of
lowering. Do believe we will see some diurnally driven airmass storms
out ahead of this during the afternoon, and won`t rule out something
getting a bit spicy, but the severe threat remains very low in the
absence of any shear or upper level support. Another stronger front
will approach during the overnight hours and bring a much drier
airmass into the CWA as we go into the long term forecast period on
Friday.

High tomorrow will be in the 80s, likely somewhat tampered by
afternoon cloud cover. Copious moisture remains in place with
dewpoints likely into the upper 60s to lower 70s, giving us some "air
we can wear". Lows will be in the 60s tonight and tomorrow night,
though with cooler, drier air filtering in Thursday night, we could
see some upper 50s in the far north.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For now, no widespread significant weather impacts are expected
throughout the long term forecast. The long term forecast kicks off
with a pleasant period of quiet weather as a cold front is expected
to bring an unseasonably dry airmass to the forecast area. While
northwesterly flow typically spells trouble during the summer, this
dry airmass will limit convective activity and bring dewpoints in the
50s to much of north Georgia, which will feel more spring-like
compared to the typical summertime dewpoints in the 70s. While
daytime max temperatures will still be quite warm in the 80s to low
90s, overnight low temperatures Friday going into Saturday morning
will be as low a the upper 50s across portions of north Georgia.
Quiet weather conditions will persist through much of the day
Saturday before a deep trough is poised to bring the next round of
active weather. Yet another frontal boundary will approach the
forecast area and is set to bring an organized line of convection
late Saturday evening into early Sunday. North Georgia is expected to
see the bulk of the activity from this system during the day Sunday
before coverage of showers and thunderstorms progress further south
with the front by Monday. A reinforcing shortwave rounding the base
of the trough will help that front clear the forecast area by Monday
before the boundary becomes stalled over northern Florida. This
boundary will then serve as the focal point for shower and
thunderstorm development where the northern extent of this activity
is expected to bring scattered storms over portions of central
Georgia. At this time, widespread severe weather or flooding related
issues are expected. This front does, however, appear to bring
temperatures that will be running a tad cooler than average across
more portions of the area early next week.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The line of showers and thunderstorms has moved E of the Atlanta
metro area and weakened. A few showers may make it to AHN shortly,
otherwise, generally quiet wx is expected through the rest of the
night. However, some MVFR cigs are possible toward daybreak. A cold
front will move into the area later today, with isolated to low end
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible near and S of the front.
The HRRR is not overly optimistic on storm development, but there
should be enough destabilization during the afternoon to couple with
weak dynamic forcing. Most of this activity should develop S of the
Atlanta metro and AHN areas. List SW winds will veer to more westerly
by afternoon with some gusts near 20 knots.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium regarding morning cigs and afternoon thunderstorm
development. High for all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  85  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  85  62  87 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     60  77  54  77 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    64  84  58  85 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        70  90  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     66  83  60  83 /  20   0   0   0
Macon           69  90  62  90 /  30  10   0   0
Rome            66  86  59  86 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  66  87  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  92  66  91 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...SEC