299
FXUS65 KFGZ 081701
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1001 AM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Although temperatures cool slightly this weekend,
afternoon high temperatures will remain above average. Any
isolated showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions
of eastern Arizona Sunday into next week. Hot temperatures
return towards the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...No updates with the forecast this morning. Just watching
some high level clouds swing around the high today. Some cumulus
building in NM gives signs that we may eventually see our low
chance of a high based thunderstorm over the White Mountains come
to fruition today...though coverage and timing still looks very
limited.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...A dip in temperatures will provide
some relief from the heat as the upper-level ridge shifts
eastward this weekend. Despite the fall in pressure heights,
afternoon high temperatures will still be a few to 8 degrees above
normal today. Models indicate drier air in northern Arizona today
with precipitable water in the 0.2" to 0.4" range. Little to no
precipitation is expected across the area. Winds will be out of
the west-southwest with breezes around 20 to 25 mph in the
afternoon. By Sunday, temperatures will return to near average
with a bit weaker southwesterly winds. Atmospheric moisture does
creep upwards for eastern Arizona. This will allow for a slight
chance (10-25%) of showers and storms Sunday afternoon, primarily
for the White Mountains. Slight chances linger into next week for
eastern Arizona.

Deja vu! A broad area of high pressure will redevelop over western
CONUS next week, driving another warming trend. Additionally, a
low pressure area off the coast of Baja California will bring
southerly flow, aiding in above average temperatures. Wednesday
currently looks to be the hottest day next week with afternoon
highs around 10 degrees above the seasonal norm. By the end of
next week, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the low near Baja
California lifting to the northeast and moving directly across
Arizona. There is some disagreement between models on the timing
of this system, but the arrival is currently expected sometime
between late Thursday and Friday. This will help support the chance
of rain being more widespread. However, due to the limited moisture,
high-based storms and dry lightning are more likely than wetting
rains. Continue to practice caution and follow fire restrictions
as we pensively wait for the end of fire season and the onset of
the North American Monsoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/18Z through Sunday 09/18Z...VFR conditions
persist. SW winds 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts. Calm and variable
winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions
continue to persist. Expecting some high based TS activity near
and southeast of KSOW Sunday afternoon and evening. Continued
light winds overnight, becoming SW 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts
during the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...A slight cooling trend will
take place this weekend, with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and gusts
as high as 30 mph, each afternoon. Aside from a very slight chance
of high-based showers/thunderstorms near the White Mountains Sunday,
conditions remain dry.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and warmer temperatures by Tuesday
and Wednesday. Daytime RH values below 15 percent and southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Mazon
AVIATION...RKR
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff