804
FXUS63 KGLD 110354
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
954 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for storms in Eastern Colorado during the
  evening hours on today. Potential for severe weather is low.

- Break in the active weather pattern mid week with triple
  digit high temperatures.

- Best rain chances for the week, and possibly the rest of the month,
  are toward the end of the week.

- Severe weather occurring will be greatly influenced by the time
  of day the upper level short wave troughs move through late
  this week and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over Texas and
slowly moving east, another low is extending a weak trough over the
western Great Lakes, and a mild ridge is moving east from the Great
Basin. As the day progresses, a very weak shortwave will eject from
the north-central Rockies and move east-southeast. This will allow a
line of storms to form near the Cheyenne, WY area and move towards
the CWA. Due to minimal shear and a fairly capped environment, the
storms look to decay as they near Yuma county, around 0Z. The
northwestern half of Yuma county will have a chance to see severe
thunderstorms, likely just winds nearing 60 MPH. Far northwestern
Kit Carson county may see some severe weather too, but Yuma has a
higher chance (~10-20%). Farther to the southeast, locations may see
some showers and strong winds, but severe level hazards will be
fairly limited.

Overnight, low temperatures will drop to near 60 and light showers
and sprinkles may form near 12Z. This light precipitation would
likely reach across majority of the CWA, if it does form. If these
showers and sprinkle do form, they would last until around noon and
greatly reduce the potential for convection in the evening hours. If
the showers do not form, or stop early in the morning, we could see
some thunderstorms move through the southern CWA tomorrow late
afternoon.

High temperatures tomorrow look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
while temperatures will cool off into the upper 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Wednesday through Monday not much has changed with the overall
weather pattern.  This pattern looks more like August than mid June.
Models continue to show two stronger upper level short wave troughs
moving over the forecast area toward the end of the week.  The best
chances for rainfall for the rest of the month may likely be during
this timeframe.  Severe weather occurring will be determined largely
by when the upper level short wave troughs move through.

Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and hot as the upper level ridge
builds over the forecast area.  Upper level short wave troughs will
traverse the forecast area.  However the environment will either be
too dry or too stable for storm activity to occur until Thursday
night.  Storm movement will be quite slow and precipitable water
values will be over an inch, indicative of heavy rainfall.  Deep
layer shear will be supportive of organized thunderstorm structures.
The limiting factor for severe weather to occur looks to be the
timing of the upper level short wave trough moving through.  Latest
model data continues to have the short wave trough moving through
during the evening, which is not an ideal time for severe weather to
occur.  There may be time during the early evening for severe
weather to occur.  However this may only be for a couple of hours
before the environment stabilizes.

The best chance for rain for the rest of the month looks to be
Friday night.  This upper level short wave trough is also moving
through during the evening.  The environment does not look as
favorable for severe weather due to the later arrival time, plus the
deep layer shear may not support organized thunderstorms.  Storm
movement will be faster than Thursday night, so heavy rainfall is
not as likely to occur.

Saturday night the strongest upper level short wave trough of the
week moves through.  Deep layer shear may be quite low as the upper
level short wave trough moves through.  As such, due to the timing
of the trough passage and the potential for low deep layer shear,
severe weather is in question.  What also adds to the uncertainty is
the trough may not even be over the forecast area for much of the
evening, and instead moving east of the forecast area before mid
evening.  This may cause storm activity to start over the eastern
counties then fill in as the storm activity shifts east of the
forecast area.

Sunday night and Monday night two more upper level short wave
troughs move over the forecast area. This may lead to more
rainfall chances for the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
south-southwest around 10-15kts through 13z Tuesday, then
then light/variable. From 18z onward south around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
southwest around 10kts. By 08z, light/variable becoming east-
southeast around 10kts from 16z onward. LLWS 08z-16z Tuesday
220@40kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN