Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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672 FXUS63 KGLD 100722 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 122 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is possible in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado towards sunrise Monday morning. - There are a few chances for storms in Eastern Colorado during the evening hours on Monday, with a low chance for a severe storm or two. - Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with near triple digit high temperatures. - Next system looks to impact the area Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 With the latest guidance showing the potential for some patchy fog in western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in CO after 09z Monday, have introduced some in the forecast during the 09z-15z Monday timeframe. At this time, it does not look to push too far east towards the CO/KS border but will continue to monitor. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered over the Four Corners Region. Various areas of cloud cover were rotating around the ridge. There continued to be a corridor of low clouds on the western edge of the high pressure over Eastern CO. This afternoon a very pleasant day will continue with the light east to southeast winds. Tonight the winds will turn to the south as the surface ridge continues to move east over Nebraska. Over night low clouds, and possibly some fog, may form over Eastern CO in response to the moisture advection. Any fog will be confined to CO. Monday will be another very pleasant day. The ridge currently to the west will shift slightly to the east as it moves over the forecast area. Due to the south winds, WAA will be stronger allowing for temperatures to be warmer than today. Monday evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move through Nebraska, dipping down into the forecast area. Isentropic analysis does not show much for lifting/forcing with this short wave trough. At the same time the instability will be declining as the sun sets. Deep layer shear is 20 kts, which may support strong to low end severe thunderstorms. Confidence is 20% for strong to severe thunderstorms to form due to the rather weak deep layer shear in place and the declining instability. The upper level short wave trough will fill as it moves through the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 During the latter part of the work week an upper low situated off the Pacific Coast begins its inland progression, eventually breaking down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the area. Following triple digit heat on Thursday, temperatures at the end of the work week and over the weekend will lower slightly - into the mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s to middle 60s. After the warming/drying trend with an upper ridge in place mid-week, shower/storm chances return Thursday evening-night, continuing each day through the remainder of the long term period as the next system nears and subsequently moves through the area. Guidance suggests a potential for strong to severe storm development in this timeframe, supported by shortwaves moving through the flow, sufficient instability, shear, and increased moisture (still looking at PWATs around 1-1.75 inches for Friday). Will continue to monitor as this time period nears. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024 For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, except for some MVFR ceilings from 11z-15z Monday. Winds, southeast around 10kts through 11z Monday, then south 10-15kts. Gusts up to 25-30kts from 15z Mon-00z Tue. For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds, light/variable through 13z Monday, then south 10-15kts. Gusts to 25kts from 16z Mon-02z Tue. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...JN SHORT TERM...JTL LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN