Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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003
FXHW60 PHFO 150632
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
832 PM HST Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade wind conditions will persist through next week.
Clouds and showers will predominantly favor windward and mauka
areas overnight into the morning as areas of moisture move
through. An increase in windward shower coverage is possible from
Monday night through midweek due to a mid- to upper-level
disturbance drifting westward across the state. Some of these
showers may briefly extend to the dry leeward areas of the
smaller islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains consistent, showing a strong surface ridge north
of the state throughout the upcoming week, possibly strengthening
later on. This will sustain breezy easterly trade winds with
clouds and mostly brief showers favoring windward and mauka
locations. The trade wind inversion will be situated between 6,000
and 7,500 feet, and precipitable water (PW) levels will generally
range from 1.0 to 1.25 inches. Rainfall amounts will likely be
limited, even in windward areas, except possibly during the first
half of the week when an upper-level trough moves westward across
the state, drawing up more moisture.

Guidance indicates PW values increasing above average starting
Monday night through Tuesday in the eastern part of the state, and
later spreading to the western areas by Tuesday night into
midweek. While most showers during this period will favor windward
and mauka areas, some could reach leeward areas, especially
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This pattern of occasional light
showers in our typically dry leeward regions may persist into the
latter part of next week as the pressure gradient tightens,
resulting in brisk easterly trades across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue. Clouds and
light showers will favor east and northeast facing slopes and
coasts. Isolated spillover showers are expected along leeward
slopes of the smaller islands, especially in the late night and
morning hours. Brief MVFR CIG/VIS are possible in passing
showers, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail all areas.

A weak eddy just west of the Big Island will keep the leeward
coast and adjacent waters of the Big Island south of Hilo
shrouded in VFR cloudiness overnight. Clouds should lift and
dissipate after sunrise tomorrow morning.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration along
windward slopes of the Big Island. Elsewhere, Brief MVFR CIG or
VIS are possible in passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions
will prevail all areas.

&&

.MARINE...
A high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate to
strong trade winds blowing across the Hawaii region. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier channels and
waters around Maui County and the Big Island through the weekend.
This SCA for the windier waters may continue into much of next
week.

The High Surf Warning (HSW) continues through noon Saturday as a
long period south swell continues to roll through the islands.
Surf observations show surf heights remaining at low end warning
thresholds this evening. A gradual downward trend is expected from
Saturday night into early next week. After this south swell moves
out, only background small medium to long period south to
southeast swell energy will move into the region through the rest
of next week.

North shore surf will remain small for the next few days. Small
medium period northwest pulses may provide a tiny bump Sunday
night into middle of next week. Surf along east shores will remain
small and choppy each day due to continued trade winds.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until noon HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward
South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South
Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Bedal
MARINE...Bohlin