750
FXUS66 KHNX 112112
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
212 PM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024


.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Isolated strong thunderstorms have a 10 to 20 percent chance of
occurrence this afternoon and early evening along the Sierra Nevada
crest from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP.

2. Temperatures will trend warmer to around 10 to 15 degrees above
climatological averages today and Wednesday.

3. A Heat Advisory is in effect for today through Wednesday, with
probabilities of afternoon highs exceeding 100 degrees in the San
Joaqin Valley around 65-90%. The probability of exceeding 105
degrees is generally less than 20% with the exception of Fresno
and Visalia being about 30%.

4. The warm temperatures will allow increased snowmelt to continue
over the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along
rivers and waterways.

5. A gradual lowering of temperatures is in store later this week,
and a more noticeable cooling trend arrives by this weekend when
highs fall closer to climatological averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is strengthening over the region today with 24 hour
temperature trends running around 6 to 9 degrees warmer. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada
foothills, West Side Mountains, and the Kern River Valley today
through Wednesday. Much of the lower elevations will climb into
the triple digits with high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees
above climatological averages. There is widespread moderate heat
risk with areas of high heat risk. Here are probabilities for a
high temperature of 102 degrees or higher for some of the larger
population areas in the San Joaquin Valley.

        Tue      Wed
Merced          51%      31%
Madera          46%      36%
Fresno          71%      66%
Reedley    36%     51%
Lemoore    61%     46%
Hanford         61%      51%
Visalia         71%      66%
Porterville     61%      46%
Delano          61%      36%
Bakersfield      61%      56%

Satellite loops show sunny skies are prevailing across the central
California interior early this afternoon. There are some cumulus
developing over the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP
with a slight chance for isolated strong thunderstorms later this
afternoon and into the early evening. In addition to dangerous
lightning strikes, storms could produce brief heavy rainfall and
small hail. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
along the Sierra Nevada crest Wednesday and Thursday as well.

The ridge breaks down on Thursday as the upper low moves inland
over southern California. A Gulf of Alaska low moves across the
Pacific Northwest this weekend with troughing over the western
CONUS. Temperatures lower to around 4 to 8 degrees above average
Thursday and Friday and then fall to near average this weekend
and early next week. Winds will be on the increase later in the
week after the ridge breaks down. Strong wind gusts are expected
across the Mojave Desert slopes Friday through the weekend with
breezy conditions elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ300>317-319-332.

&&

$$

DCH

weather.gov/hanford