812
FXUS62 KILM 130002
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
802 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure begins to move offshore tonight. Weak low
pressure passes offshore for the end of the week with a
moisture- starved cold front passing through over the weekend
bringing temperatures and humidity down a bit for early next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No changes made to previous forecast. Moderate rip current risk
continues for all local beaches Thursday, with a strong
longshore current forecasted at Brunswick and Horry county
beaches. 0z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure to our north will pivot overnight as it slides
offshore. Onshore flow this afternoon will persist tonight along the
coast. Surface inversion should bring light or calm winds to most
inland areas. As thick upper level cirrus overspreads the area
overnight, warmer temperatures and better mixing are possible over
northeastern SC where boundary layer winds should exceed 10 knots.
Some patchy fog is possible across southeastern NC by sunrise in
lighter winds and less cloud cover, but confidence is low.

Expecting to stay dry tonight although low clouds could start to
move into the coastal portions of SC tomorrow morning just after
sunrise. Increasing moisture advection within the boundary layer
could produce some showers around near the coast, especially into
the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weather will still be dependent on the offshore low that will travel
up from FL through the period. While the strength of the system
still appears to be predominantly weak and the chance for rain
remains low away from the immediate coast, it could still have an
adverse impact on the beaches via swells. Otherwise, highs in the
90s with humid conditions increasing Fri night into Sat ahead of a
weak backdoor cold front, low precip chances confined to the coast.
Heat indices look to reach near 100F Sat, with lows near 70 Fri
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry high pressure moves overhead at the start of the period where it
will slowly shift to our north through midweek. Some weak shortwaves
energy could travel around the high leading to low precip chances,
but the forcing will have to fight the drier air in place. Highs in
the 90s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through this TAF period. Boundary layer winds
are expected to be elevated enough to hinder any fog
development. Onshore flow may bring few to scattered low clouds,
around 2kft, to the coastal areas of northeast SC and Brunswick
county from 8z through morning, including KMYR and KCRE. Not
expecting any flight restrictions at this time given bulk of the
moisture remains offshore. Few high clouds and scattered
diurnal cu around 6-7 kft Thursday with easterly winds around 10
kts, and gusts near 20 kts at coastal terminals with sea breeze
starting around 15z.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Onshore flow expected to continue overnight
as high pressure slides offshore. A developing low well to our
south will produce a tightening gradient on Thursday. Winds
shift slightly, becoming more easterly. Sustained winds up to 20
knots are possible. Gusts should be periodic between 20-25
knots into the afternoon and early evening. Seas remain choppy
with a persistent easterly wind. Seas around 3-4 feet become 4-5
feet on Thursday.

Thursday Night through Monday...An offshore low could lead to an
increased SE swell through the end of the week becoming NE for the
weekend behind a cold front. Light N winds will become S`ly Fri
aftn, gradually becoming W`ly by Sat with a turn to the E with
the frontal passage. Seas generally 3-4 ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ110.
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...21/LEW