856
FXUS63 KILX 091751
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph could lead to
  blowing dust this afternoon into early evening.

- Comfortable temperatures will persist through about midweek
  before things turn hot and humid late in the week.

- Precipitation chances look slim the next 7 days, with only a few
  low-end chances (<20%) late in the week and weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Forecast looks on track and just a few minor updates done to sky
and winds into this evening. An MCS over southern IL, southeast MO
and nw TN with its convection south of I-64 will weaken as it
tracks se this afternoon. Its shield of mid level clouds was as
far north as I-70 with bands of cirrus clouds further north over
central and northern IL up to I-88 with partly to mostly sunny
skies. These mid/high clouds are forecast to decrease from north
to south during the afternoon as MCS weakens and pulls away from
southern IL. Forecast soundings show mixing up to around 700 mb
(8-9k ft) by mid afternoon. Mixing this high up supports NW wind
gusts of 25-30 mph this afternoon and early evening over ne CWA
and possibly a bit higher from I-74 north. Dewpoints in the mid
50s to near 60F to drop into the mid to upper 40s during mid/late
afternoon. Drier air and increasing sunshine this afternoon to
boost temperatures to around 80F for highs this afternoon with
lower 80s over the IL river valley/western CWA.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning just
north of Lake Huron with northwest flow over the Midwest states.
Surface ridging has started nosing into the middle Mississippi
Valley and will control the weather pattern through early week,
keeping things somewhat cooler than normal. Breezy northwest winds
become common this afternoon as the pressure gradient becomes
pinched between the encroaching high and a surface low to the
northeast. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to about 700 mb
developing by this afternoon, with momentum transfer winds as high
as 20-30 kts. The 09.00Z HREF has high chances for wind gusts in
excess of 25 mph north of a Havana to Champaign line, with
probabilities dropping below 40% for 30 mph or greater. Winds of
this magnitude caused issues with blowing dust late last week, and
with little or no rain since then similar conditions will likely
develop.

Ridging amplifies over the western CONUS going into Monday with a
few upper lows working to flatten the ridge as it spills into the
central CONUS. Flow aloft will become more zonal by Midweek with
another upper high building over the southwest US. Mid-level heights
will gradually rise as this ridge gets kicked eastward going into
next weekend, turning things hot and humid. Precipitation chances
look rather slim the next 7 days, though upper shortwave action
could push a few frontal systems through late in the week/weekend.
Details on these are still far from clarity, so for now held onto
the NBM`s occasional 20% precipitation chances.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are generally forecast to continue across the
central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Monday. Breezy NW winds 10-15
kts and gusting 18-25 kts this afternoon and early evening, to
diminish to 5-10 kt after sunset, and veer north to NNE overnight.
Few to scattered high cumulus clouds with 5-7k ft bases this
afternoon to dissipate at sunset, while scattered cirrus clouds
along I-72 push southward during mid/late afternoon. A trough
axis/upper system dropping a corridor of 3 to 5k ft stratocumulus
clouds southward from central WI across central IL during
overnight. Probabilities for ceilings to fall into MVFR flight
conditions is less than 50% as of now, with higher chances ne of
BMI and CMI by dawn Monday.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$