Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
464 FXUS65 KLKN 091926 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1226 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, brief moderate to heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning are primary threats. A weak cold front will try to move through the area later in the night, bringing slightly cooler conditions to northern Nevada tomorrow with with several degrees of cooling. Shower coverage will be even less tomorrow afternoon with drier and hot conditions settling back into the region Tuesday, persisting through to late this week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Clouds are on the increase and showers and thunderstorms are on the increase. Expect the coverage of showers and thunderstorms to continue for the afternoon. Some storms near the border with Idaho could be strong and long lived with the main threats of wind gusts to 60 mph and small hail. Surface dewpoints continue to remain rather high for this time of year with readings in the 40s in northern Nevada with the 30s seen in central Nevada. Look for the showers and thunderstorms to continue through the early evening hours as a cold front tries to move through the area through the overnight period. Lows will be in the 50s. For Monday and Monday night, drier air will move into the region, though sufficient moisture will exist for afternoon build-ups across central Nevada, along with an isolated dry thunderstorm or possibly a mix of wet and dry storms in portions of northern White Pine and southern Elko counties during the day time. Highs tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with readings in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Winds will generally be light. Conditions are expected to quiet down during the Monday night period with skies scattering out by the late night timeframe. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday Ensemble models show an off-cut-low forming and heading south of the coast of Mexico, however the low will be too far south to bring any more instability and moisture over the silver state, leaving room for a weak upper level ridge to form with drier and warmer air. High temperature are expected to gradually rise with Tuesday highs in the upper 80s and 90s, then Wednesday and Thursday highs in the 90s to near triple digits. Low temperatures are also expected to rise, but stay in the 50s each night. Breezy winds expected each afternoon with Tuesday winds more westerly at 10-15 mph, Wednesday with westerly/southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph, and Thursday winds from the south at 10-20 mph. Overnight Thursday and into Friday, the off-cut-low is expected to move northeast towards the four corners, however chances for isolated showers remains low below 20% for northeastern Nevada. Temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs back in the 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the lower 50s. Westerly winds shifting to northwesterly expected in the afternoon at 15-25 mph. Over the weekend, as the off-cut-low moves east, models are showing a low pressure system moving over northwestern U.S. and potentially reaching towards northern Nevada. No chances for weather is expected from this low as it only glances over northern Nevada giving near zonal westerly flow, however it is expected to bring much cooler temperatures, with highs dropping into the 70s and 80s on Saturday, and by Sunday dropping to almost in the upper 60s for highs, but be in the 80s for central Nevada. Lows also expected to be cooler dropping down in the 40s to 50s both nights. Breezy westerly/northwesterly winds expected both afternoons at 10-15 mph. && .AVIATION...Isolated weather activity this afternoon and into the evening hours for all northern terminals. Winds of 10 kts gusts 20-25 kts at all terminals and is expected to dissipate during the evening hours. VFR conditions dominant, with MFVR conditions or low possible from passing storms. && .HYDROLOGY...Above normal temperatures are expected to increase remaining snowpack melt on mountain tops. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Sunday will mostly be limited in rainfall so a significant rain on snow situation is not expected. The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to slowly rise but remain in action stage for the next several days. Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the next several days. Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek near or above minor flood stage in the next several days. The Jarbidge River is trending lows but is expected to remain in action stage at least through today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 86/97/97