234
FXUS64 KLZK 111938
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
238 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

19z satellite and surface observations indicate scattered, mainly
high clouds across the forecast area. Near normal temperatures
prevailed.

Regional satellite and radar data continue to indicate the progress
of an MCS moving east over north Texas.  CAM guidance suggests that
thus system will stay to the southwest of the forecast area.

A surface ridge of high pressure across the mid south will
strengthen during this period. Also, a mid level ridge will build
from the southwest. Together, these features are expected to
impede precipitation development during this period. Heat stress
conditions will rise during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

H500 ridging will be building east toward Arkansas from the SW US at
the start of the period. Under the ridge, mostly dry conditions are
expected, and hot temperatures are in the forecast through early
next week.

Moisture will slowly increase across the state with time. Much of
the state except the Ozark/Ouachita Mountains will experience heat
indices from 100 to 105 degrees on Sunday when the heat looks to
peak.

With daily high temperatures expected to top out in the upper
90s F each day from Fri-Sun across parts of the state, there is
definitely some chance for a few locations to hit the century mark.
Given the recent active pattern and widespread rainfall in many
areas, it will be interesting to see how much sfc/soil conditions
influence area T/Td values.

Early next week, the ridge will wobble to the east. There is some
indication that tropical moisture will head this way from the Gulf
Coast on Monday. Temperatures will not be as hot, and there will be
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon/evening.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions, along with a light and variable surface flow are
expected during this valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  86  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         62  88  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       60  86  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    63  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  64  88  65  93 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     62  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      61  88  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  86  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        60  87  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     62  86  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   63  88  64  92 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         60  86  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  85  64  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...55