651
FXUS64 KLZK 081147
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sfc high pressure was centered to the south and east of AR early
this mrng, allowing for a light S/SE wind flow over the state.
Predawn readings were mainly in the 70s. Meanwhile, cont to monitor
a complex of storms moving into southern MO. CAMS cont to show that
some of this activity wl affect northern AR towards daybreak, with
an expected weakening trend later this morning.

As the aforementioned convection winds down later this mrng, a
remnant outflow bndry is expected to sag southward towards central
AR. While support is limited to provide a focus for organized
convection, a few storms (<20%) could form along the bndry this
aftn. With limited confidence, have not included a mention in the
fcst attm.

Meanwhile, south winds wl cont to increase acrs the FA today,
allowing high temps to top out in the lower and mid 90s at most
locations. Combined with increasing RH levels, aftn heat indices
will climb well into the 90s. Cannot rule out some locations apchg
the century mark, mainly along the AR River valley.

For the remainder of the weekend, NW flow aloft wl persist over the
Mid-South. Additional rounds of convection are progged to form as a
series of SWT`s traverse the region. Current thoughts are that the
highest PoPs wl rmn concentrated over the north half of the FA Sun
and Sun night. Cannot rule of a few strong/severe storms, with
damaging winds the main threat. Repeated rounds of storms acrs the
same general area also raises the concern for flash flooding potential.
Wl cont to monitor rainfall trends ovr the next 12 to 24 hours for
the possibility of any headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The long term fcst begins in the wake of a cdfrnt fm the weekend.
Most guidance indicates the frnt should be moving acrs Srn AR
towards the Gulf Coast region on Mon mrng, w/ lingering precip along
the leading edge of the frnt. Thru the day Mon, Nrly sfc winds wl
usher in drier air, w/ humidity levels tapering down, and afternoon
high temps trending towards more seasonal values.

Dry condns, seasonal temps, and lower humidity readings should
prevail thru at least early Wed, before broad sfc high pressure
begins to drift Ewrd over Appalachia, and Srly sfc flow resumes over
the Srn Plains. A subtle H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to
develop over the OK/TX panhandle... possibly a convectively enhanced
or sourced upper level vorticity max... and maneuver thru weak upper
background flow, ejecting acrs the ARKLATEX region Wed aftn. For
now, low chc PoPs may be seen around the FA, particularly over Wrn
to S/Wrn AR.

Otherwise, intermittent low-chc PoPs and relatively dry condns are
expected thru the remainder of next week, and Srly flow wl yield
incrsg temps and humidity levels acrs the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Sctd convection, currently over northern and central AR, wl cont
to work to the east this mrng, with brief periods of MVFR conds.
Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail with increasing S/SW winds heading
into the this aftn. Next round of storms expected to affect N AR
later tngt, with VC groups mentioned at KHRO and KBPK.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44