504
FXUS64 KMAF 110754
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
254 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Low-level moisture in the wake of storms that moved through last
evening keeps clouds around, with low clouds developing in the
Midland/Odessa metro and areas further east tonight before
clearing out around sunrise. IR satellite and radar shows clouds
and showers located over the southern Permian Basin and SE NM
plains, with some stronger storms over Crane into Upton Counties.
We can expect such a setup to continue into this morning. With a
cold front hung up along the Trans Pecos beginning to dissipate
and the short wave trough providing lift for yesterday`s storms
moves off to the east, upper ridging will begin to build into the
area. As a result, warmer temperatures than Monday are expected,
with highs mostly in the 90s, 80s over the northeastern Permian
Basin and northern Lea County and higher elevations, and triple
digits over the Reeves County Plains, Western Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. A mix of sun and clouds
is forecast, while more widespread cloud cover is forecast over
the northeast Permian Basin, which will keep temperatures down.
Along with cloud cover, a chance of rain will be maintained for
the eastern Permian Basin through Tuesday evening. Instability and
shear will be such that any storms that do develop over the
eastern Permian Basin have the potential to be severe, with
damaging winds and large hail the main threats.

Tuesday night, light easterly flow, some high clouds, and above
average lows for mid June can be expected, with mostly 60s, 70s
along the Pecos River, over Reeves County Plains and Stockton
Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Wednesday continues the warming
trend, with mostly 90s and above for highs aside from 80s in the
higher elevations and Western Low Rolling Plains. Skies clear from
west to east, with the most sunshine likely southwest of the Pecos
River. Light easterly flow will continue, keeping temperatures
down somewhat, but also resulting in widespread dew points in
the 60s, 50s over southwesternmost regions. This only only be the
start of renewed heat. Read on in the Long Term Discussion for
more.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday night will be quiescent, with near to slightly above
normal low temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s for most.
Persistent southeasterly surface flow will be the rule through the
extended, which will maintain some semblance of low-level
moisture and not only keep overnight temperatures on the milder
side, but keep daytime highs from climbing as high as they
otherwise may if surface flow were westerly, southwesterly, or
even more easterly with less influence from Gulf Moisture. Aloft,
ridging develops in earnest just to the west of the area on
Thursday, with the ridge developing a positive tilt ahead of a
trough progged to translate eastward across the Great Basin and
Four Corners Region on Friday. Increasing thicknesses due to the
aforementioned ridge will see highs Thursday rebound a couple
degrees above normal, topping out in the middle to upper 90s and
lower 100s. The hottest temperatures, per normal, will be found
along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs reach close to
112F. Temperatures Friday will be similar in spite of the
approaching shortwave, though the difference will be found on
Friday afternoon as the shortwave somewhat flattens out the ridge
and passes to the north of the area. This shortwave will yield
potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the favored
higher terrain to the west of the Pecos River, with storms
developing during the afternoon and diminishing with the loss of
insolation and increasing subsidence in the evening as the trough
translates eastward.

Heading into the weekend, flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal
Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday, with increasing subsidence
mitigating rain chances aside from a diurnally driven storm or two
over the Davis Mountains Saturday afternoon. Cluster analyses and
deterministic guidance are in fairly good agreement regarding the
evolution of the upper pattern into early next week, with a
southwest-northeast oriented ridge of high pressure extending over
the region from Baja into the Central Plains, though there
remains uncertainty as to how broad the ridge will become. That
said, haven`t deviated from the NBM at this time, with hot, dry
conditions and a subtle warming trend carrying us into early next
week with highs in the upper 90s and 100s and lows in the upper
60s and 70s. Welcome to summer.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Outside of showers, VFR VIS and CIGs prevail at all terminals
through TAF period. Winds shift from southeasterly/southerly to
northwesterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 17Z-20Z, where
winds at MAF become easterly by that time frame. Winds become
easterly at all terminals aside from MAF by 02Z Wednesday. Wind
speeds remain light with any gusts below 20kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  68  92  71 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  70 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   99  73  97  74 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            99  71  98  73 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           92  68  93  72 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                    92  65  95  69 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    95  60  96  62 /  10  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     92  69  92  72 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   93  69  93  73 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                     99  72 100  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...94
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...94