264
ACUS11 KWNS 091936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091935
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into western Texas and
southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091935Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are anticipated
through the late afternoon hours across southeast New Mexico into
western and central Texas and southwest/southern Oklahoma. While
sporadic hail and damaging winds are possible, storm
organization/longevity should remain limited. Watch issuance is not
currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a few attempts at sustained
convective initiation across central to western TX along a diffuse
surface trough/confluence zone to the east of a weak surface low
over the Trans Pecos region. Additional cumulus development is noted
along a cold front pushing southward through southern OK and
northwest TX. More robust/sustained convection appears likely within
the next 1-2 hours across both of these regions as diurnal heating
and weak mesoscale ascent further erode lingering inhibition and
surface-based parcels approach their convective temperatures
(generally in the mid 90s).

To the west, persistent cloud cover over NM has limited daytime
heating to some degree, but filtered insolation will continue to
destabilize a reasonably moist air mass (surface dewpoints are about
the 75th percentile for early June across southeastern NM). A few
early updrafts are noted in far southeast NM with additional/more
numerous thunderstorm development within the upslope flow regime
anticipated a little later this afternoon, most likely during the
21-23 UTC period based off recent high-res guidance.

Both regions are characterized by moderate to strong SBCAPE
(2000-4000 J/kg), weak deep-layer wind shear (based on recent VWP
observations), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers. Consequently,
the expectation is for initially discrete to semi-discrete cells to
pose an early severe hail risk before quickly becoming outflow
dominant with additional redevelopment along outflow boundaries. One
or more somewhat organized clusters may emerge and pose a more
focused severe wind threat if consolidated cold pools can become
established; however, this appears to be a low-predictability
scenario given the potential for scattered thunderstorms over a
broad region. Given the poor kinematic environment and
low-confidence in where more focused severe wind corridors will
emerge, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Moore/Gleason.. 06/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   30830296 31320355 32240440 32810454 33600445 34080412
            34500353 34860272 34840175 34529952 34719800 34999684
            34969630 34519614 33989640 33569682 33059803 32769861
            32149893 31429869 30729871 30309892 30109932 30049994
            30010059 30130135 30830296