963
FXUS64 KMEG 081522
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Skies are cloudy across the northern half of the Mid-South with
mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Temperatures
this morning are in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. A large
area of light rain covers much of northeast Arkansas and into
portions of west Tennessee. As this rain moves southeast, it will
slowly fall apart. With the clouds and rain, temperatures are not
warming up as much as expected so have adjusted high temperatures
for this afternoon.

ARS

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to remain
mostly north of the area today over southern Missouri and western
Kentucky as an upper-level ridge remains in place across the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
begin to increase tonight into Sunday as a cold front drops into
the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
later this evening into early Sunday morning mainly north of I-40.
Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are
possible. Cooler and drier air will build into the area for early
next week with temperatures increasing back to the upper 80s to
lower 90s for the latter half of next week as an upper-level ridge
builds across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

GOES Water Vapor satellite trends this morning show a couple of
upper-level lows over Canada. One upper-level low is centered over
western Quebec while the other one is over central Manitoba.
Meanwhile, an MCS is located over western Missouri on the
northern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis early this
morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the nearest showers
and thunderstorms over southwest Missouri. As of 4 AM CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South range from around 60 degrees to
the middle 60s.

Short-term models including CAMs indicate showers and
thunderstorms associated with the MCS will be more prevalent just
upstream of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western
Kentucky today. 00Z KLZK and morning LAPS soundings show a
substantial amount of dry air present across the area as of
discussion time. Nonetheless, a potential exists for a few
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across the northern edge of the
CWA today where the ridge might be slightly weaker. Otherwise,
dry conditions should prevail across most of the Mid-South with
highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually begin to increase
later this evening as modest mid-level height falls gradually
begin to spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. Moderate to strong surface based instability,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km bulk shear values
increasing to 30-40 kts support the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds as the
primary severe weather threats. Soundings indicate a potential for
storms to become elevated with time later tonight which may
mitigate the wind threat late tonight.

NAEFS indicates mean precipitable water values will be around the
90th percentile as precipitable water values increase to around 2
inches. This would suggest a potential for heavy rainfall across
portions of the area. However, the HREF indicates the greatest
potential for rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches may remain
just north of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western
Kentucky. As a result, we held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch
at this time but will continue to monitor short-term trends for
reconsideration if conditions warrant any changes.

Mid/Long range models indicate shortwave ridging will build in
across the region early next week with the potential for a weak
mid-level trough to move across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday
into Wednesday. Operational and ensemble model trends suggest
this shortwave will be substantially weaker and confidence remains
low with overall convective chances in the long-term forecast at
this time as mid-level heights build into next week. Temperatures
will start out cool for next week with highs gradually returning
towards the upper 80s to lower 90s towards the latter half of the
week.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across AR/MO
this morning and are moving into West TN. This activity will
likely continue to weaken as it moves into a more hostile
environment but will probably affect at least the JBR/MKL
terminals. Only showers were included on station, but we may need
to consider thunder if this convection holds together. This
activity will wane by late morning.

Southerly winds will increase to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20
kts at times (especially along/west of the MS River) but
generally dry conditions are anticipated this afternoon. The next
round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive overnight. The most
likely scenario is that storms will develop upstream over AR/MO
and move through the area between 05-10z, though there is a
possibility that it could arrive earlier. Given the low
confidence, thunder was omitted at this time. Future updates can
hone in on where it is more likely. We could see a period of lower
ceilings (potentially MVFR) near or after 12z Sunday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...MJ