Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
963 FXUS64 KMEG 081522 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1022 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Skies are cloudy across the northern half of the Mid-South with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. A large area of light rain covers much of northeast Arkansas and into portions of west Tennessee. As this rain moves southeast, it will slowly fall apart. With the clouds and rain, temperatures are not warming up as much as expected so have adjusted high temperatures for this afternoon. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A complex of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to remain mostly north of the area today over southern Missouri and western Kentucky as an upper-level ridge remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight into Sunday as a cold front drops into the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening into early Sunday morning mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are possible. Cooler and drier air will build into the area for early next week with temperatures increasing back to the upper 80s to lower 90s for the latter half of next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 GOES Water Vapor satellite trends this morning show a couple of upper-level lows over Canada. One upper-level low is centered over western Quebec while the other one is over central Manitoba. Meanwhile, an MCS is located over western Missouri on the northern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis early this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the nearest showers and thunderstorms over southwest Missouri. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from around 60 degrees to the middle 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the MCS will be more prevalent just upstream of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky today. 00Z KLZK and morning LAPS soundings show a substantial amount of dry air present across the area as of discussion time. Nonetheless, a potential exists for a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across the northern edge of the CWA today where the ridge might be slightly weaker. Otherwise, dry conditions should prevail across most of the Mid-South with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually begin to increase later this evening as modest mid-level height falls gradually begin to spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moderate to strong surface based instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing to 30-40 kts support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather threats. Soundings indicate a potential for storms to become elevated with time later tonight which may mitigate the wind threat late tonight. NAEFS indicates mean precipitable water values will be around the 90th percentile as precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. This would suggest a potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. However, the HREF indicates the greatest potential for rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches may remain just north of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky. As a result, we held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this time but will continue to monitor short-term trends for reconsideration if conditions warrant any changes. Mid/Long range models indicate shortwave ridging will build in across the region early next week with the potential for a weak mid-level trough to move across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Operational and ensemble model trends suggest this shortwave will be substantially weaker and confidence remains low with overall convective chances in the long-term forecast at this time as mid-level heights build into next week. Temperatures will start out cool for next week with highs gradually returning towards the upper 80s to lower 90s towards the latter half of the week. CJC && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across AR/MO this morning and are moving into West TN. This activity will likely continue to weaken as it moves into a more hostile environment but will probably affect at least the JBR/MKL terminals. Only showers were included on station, but we may need to consider thunder if this convection holds together. This activity will wane by late morning. Southerly winds will increase to 8-13 kts with gusts to around 20 kts at times (especially along/west of the MS River) but generally dry conditions are anticipated this afternoon. The next round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive overnight. The most likely scenario is that storms will develop upstream over AR/MO and move through the area between 05-10z, though there is a possibility that it could arrive earlier. Given the low confidence, thunder was omitted at this time. Future updates can hone in on where it is more likely. We could see a period of lower ceilings (potentially MVFR) near or after 12z Sunday. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...MJ