822
AWUS01 KWNH 080733
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081131-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0407
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Areas affected...southern Missouri, far northern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080731Z - 081131Z

Summary...Intense convective complex is making quick southeast
progress toward the discussion area.  Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr
are continuing with stronger convection near the MCS.  Flash
flooding is likely - especially as the band reaches hillier
terrain of the Ozarks.

Discussion...An intense MCS continues to migrate southeastward
across southeast Kansas/western Missouri and continues to be aided
by 1) strong mid-level lapse rated (7.5+ C/km) and 2) strong
southwesterly low-level flow providing ascent/convergence on the
MCS`s western/southern flanks.  The end result has been areas of
1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates at times, which have threatened areal FFG
thresholds (1.5-2 inch/hr).  The MCS was making quick
southeastward progress toward the Missouri Ozarks, where hillier
terrain and slightly more sensitive ground conditions should
prompt an increased flash flood risk.  Additionally, convection
has formed out ahead of the line of storms on the southern extent
of the complex (near the Pittsburg, KS vicinity).  Cell mergers
and the orientation of this line (favoring localized training) may
boost rain rates into the 2 inch/hr range on at least a spotty
basis, with 1-1.5 inch/hr rates becoming widespread especially
across southwestern Missouri.

Each of these factors suggest an increasing flash flood risk
across the Ozarks through 11Z.  It is also probable that the
complex (and associated flash flood threat) will approach northern
Arkansas around/after 1030Z.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39269390 38929256 38069136 36989087 36239093
            36029163 35969292 36529428 37519525 39179470