912
AWUS01 KWNH 110903
FFGMPD
TXZ000-111332-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0421
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110902Z - 111332Z

Summary...Intense rain rates of near 1-2"/hr and localized
rainfall totals of 2-4" will be possible this morning as slower
moving thunderstorms track across the area. This may lead to flash
flooding, especially over areas that are more saturated due to
recent heavy rainfall.

Discussion...A lingering shortwave trough across the Texas
Panhandle is noted in the latest water vapor imagery. This feature
is expected to slowly move eastward over the next 3-6 hours,
reaching northern Texas later today. This will provide an ehnanced
zone of forcing for ascent, which is already manifesting into a
line or two of deep convection early this morning. This activity
is within a zone of higher moisture, characterized by PWs around
1.5". In addition, there is roughly about 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE
available based on the latest mesoanalysis.

There is pretty good agreement in the last few runs of the HRRR
and other hi-res guidance that this activity will continue to move
east and hold its intensity through at least mid to late morning
with the upscale growth eventually leading to a more organized MCS
before weakening toward 17-18Z. Until then, the robust deep
convection in the increeasingly more moist environment will
support hourly rain totals as high as 2" based on the latest HREF
probabilities. Over the next 6 hours, isolated totals of 2-4" will
be possible. Some of this rainfall will fall near/over areas that
already saw recent heavy rainfall and have much lower flash flood
guidance (1-hr as low as 1-1.5") and the expected motion/track and
rainfall amounts could easiily overcome these values.

As a result, some localized instances of flash flooding will be
possible through the morning hours with the potential of intense
rain rates and higher rainfall totals of 2-4".


Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34440025 34149908 33459896 32909920 32589955
            32590019 32860088 33250171 33750147 34180121