Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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170 FXUS63 KMQT 071155 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 755 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the influence of low pressure, then warming and drying early next week. - Wind gusts to 30 mph and pea-sized hail could be seen in a few of the thunderstorms Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 451 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning still show most of Upper Michigan under the influence of low pressure centered over northeast Ontario. So, current radar mosaic still has some scattered showers drifting through the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area. Across the western third though, a stream of drier air can be seen filtering into the area with an uptick in subsidence as mid-level ridging overspreads the UP. So, look for a drying trend after Fri 12Z with all of Upper Michigan rain free by Fri. 18Z. Nonetheless, decent mixing will make it a breezy day with west- northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph at times. And, temperatures will top off below normal with readings generally in the low to upper 60s. The exceptions will be low 70s across the south and low 50s to low 60s over the eastern third of the UP. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The shortwave low action continues through this weekend as a troughing pattern set up over central Canada tonight makes its way east to the St. Lawrence Seaway by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, high pressure ridging over the Northern Rockies and in the Northwest Territories tonight drops down to the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains by Monday morning, bringing with it a reprieve from the rainfall for early next week. As the high pressure ridge continues to dig through the Great Lakes region towards New England while weakening through the middle of next week, expect a cold front to bring back rain chances back across our area Tuesday and/or Wednesday night and Thursday. Well above normal temperatures look to dominate the middle to latter portions of next week as warm air advection from the Desert Southwest is projected to travel over our area. More details follow below. We start the extended period dry for a little while as skies look to be mostly clear through midnight tonight. This will allow temperatures to drop down into the mid to low 40s in the central and east tonight as cloud cover looks to be limited/not make it to those areas until near/after dawn. That being said, rain showers look to return to the western U.P. late tonight as yet another shortwave rotates down from southern Manitoba through the U.P. Saturday. As the showers move into the eastern half of the U.P. by the mid- morning, we could see a few thunderstorms develop over the interior areas as CAPE becomes surface based to a few hundred J/kg. However, with little shear to work with within the convective profile of the atmosphere, no severe weather is expected; while shearing picks up significantly in the upper levels of the atmosphere, looking at the model soundings shows that parcel uplift is likely (70+%) to not reach these much higher winds. That being said, we could see some wind gusts up to 30 mph and pea-sized hail from a couple of these thunderstorms due to updraft collapse. Don`t expect another breezy day Saturday, as limited temperature advection, a somewhat lackluster pressure gradient, and mostly cloudy skies will keep winds fairly light across the area; the exception could be in the Keweenaw in the hills to the south and north of Houghton, where winds could gust up to 25 mph during the mid to late afternoon hours. Overall, expect the highs Saturday to be pretty similar to what we will see today, namely the 60s. The showers look to end Saturday night as the shortwave continues to distance itself from us. Don`t expect the reprieve from the rain showers to last all that long though, as one final shortwave rotates over our area come Sunday. With flow becoming more northerly, expect temperatures over the north half Sunday to be a few degrees cooler than what`s expected Saturday; meanwhile, temperatures look to be a few degrees warmer in the south central on Sunday. The last of the showers looks to leave our area Sunday evening as high pressure begins to finally build into our area... We finally get an extended period of drier weather come Monday as a high pressure drops from Canada over the Upper Great Lakes. Expect sunny skies and light northerly flow as the high pressure continues to dig into the rest of the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday. The current forecast from the NBM has RHs dropping down into the lower 30 percents during the afternoon hours Monday. While the recent rainfall will help to keep surface moisture a little higher, given the dry air from the high moving overhead and the sunny skies, I wonder if we will see RHs drop down into the 20 percents or lower come Monday; as for right now, the uncertainty on this happening is a little too high to make any changes to the current forecast. We could see the dry weather come to an end Tuesday as the cold front of a low could move through the area. However, there has been recently been some model diffluence on where the low will appear; should the low fire out from northern Alberta, then we will more than likely remain dry into the middle of next week. Likewise, should the southerly solutions on the placement of the low win-out, then the chances for rainfall will become much higher. As we continue through next week, expect the temperatures to progressively warm with each day until near the end of next week, when there is very little model agreement. It does appear that another cold front will move through around next Wednesday too, bringing more showers and storms across the U.P. However, zonal flow is expected behind it in the mid levels, with warm air advection from the Desert Southwest possibly continuing behind it. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 755 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 All TAF sites except CMX have returned to VFR this morning, and CMX is expected to as well over the next few hours. At that point, all TAF sites are expected to remain at VFR levels for the duration of this TAF period as drier air filters into the area with mid-level ridging. Meanwhile, west-northwest surface winds will be breezy with gusts up to 24 kts through this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Some westerly gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected across the lake today as a shortwave low pressure moves through the Upper Great Lakes this morning and traverses into the Lower Great Lakes by this evening. Once the winds die down to 20 knots or less this evening, expect the light winds to continue across the lake until the end of the forecast period as weak shortwaves continue this weekend followed by high pressure ridging early next week. We could see some thunderstorms along the lakeshore Saturday as another shortwave rolls through the area. While no severe weather is expected, we could possibly see gusts up to 30 mph and small pea- sized hail due to updraft collapse. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ006. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP