471
FXUS64 KOHX 130650
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Strong Four Corners ridge will start to push east and that is
going to bring an extended period of hot temperatures to Middle
TN. Highs today will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will
see some instability build in over eastern areas, this will bring
some afternoon cloud cover but no precip expected. Dew points will
also start to creep up reaching the mid 60s. With the higher
humidity overnight lows Thursday night will be more mild in the
mid 60s.

On Friday an upper level trough will push into the Northeast and
that will push a cold front to our north. The front will weaken as
it pushes towards Middle TN and CAPE profiles are capped in our
area. This will lead to little to no impact with the front but we
will see some cloud cover. Despite the cloud cover highs will
continue their upward trend with them pushing into the low to mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to build east over the weekend and
we will see hot temperatures in the 90s. The APEX of the ridge
will be over us on Sunday and that will be the peak of the heat
over the next 5 days with highs well into the 90s and possibly to
100 in some locations. The NBM continues to show a 10-50% chance
for highs to break the 100 mark on Sunday. Overnight lows Sunday
night will remain mild only falling into the 70s.

A short wave trough will pass to our northwest on Monday and that
will bring some "slight" cooling for Monday and Tuesday but it
will still be hot and humid with highs in the 90s. The upper level
ridge will then continue to amplify over the eastern US and we
will see highs push back into the mid to upper 90s mid to late
week and will remain hot into next weekend. Overnight lows will
also remain mild only falling into the 70s. Given the extended
period of hot daytime highs, mild overnight lows, and humid
conditions we will see moderate to highs heat risk Sunday and
throughout the week.

The forecast is expected to remain dry through the weekend but we
could see some popup afternoon thunderstorms next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some patchy fog will be
possible until 12z in the vicinity of KSRB and may bring MVFR/IFR
conditions at times. FEW to SCT 050 clouds develop for eastern
terminals after 16z tomorrow. Light winds under 5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  68  95  70 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    89  64  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Crossville     85  63  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       92  65  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     87  65  89  67 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      86  63  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Lawrenceburg   91  65  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  65  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        89  64  92  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Mueller