840
FXUS61 KOKX 112149
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
549 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight, remaining in control through
Thursday. A cold front will approach on Friday and move through
during the afternoon to nighttime hours. High pressure then
follows for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Weak shortwave lift is interacting with just enough moisture to
produce a few light showers across NE NJ. Expecting the threat
of showers to continue over the next few hours as the shortwave
lift moves through, passing over lower level moisture convergence
courtesy of a sea breeze. Shower threat will end by midnight
with dry conditions and diminishing clouds as surface high
pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures once again will
be quite comfortable tonight with lows in the 50s in outlying
areas, and lower to a mid 60s in the urban metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The closed low trough meandering over New England the last several
days finally lifts out into midweek as surface high pressure
remains nearby

Very subtle shortwave passing through Wednesday could instigate
a few widely isolated showers during the afternoon, but once
again most should remain entirely dry. Otherwise, deep westerly
flow will allow slight modification of the air mass on
Wednesday, and with a well-mixed BL, temperatures climb a few
degrees higher than recent days, with most topping out in the
upper 70s or low 80s. Dew points remaining in the 50s should
complement this well, maintaining a comfortable feel to the air.
The weak pressure field and light flow should allow for
relatively quick sea breeze formation and keep coastal areas a
bit cooler.

Center of the surface high shifts offshore Wednesday night into
Thursday, and the resultant SW flow will start to advect in
warmer, moister air. Dry conditions continue though, as
temperatures climb on Thursday, likely approaching 90 in urban
northeast NJ, and 80s pretty much everywhere but the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Above normal temperatures for most of the period.

* Showers and scattered thunderstorms Friday and Friday night, some
  potentially strong to severe.

A shortwave will help sharpen a longwave trough on Friday as both
approach from the west, supporting a cold front pushing through the
forecast area. Timing for the frontal passage still looks to be
during the afternoon to evening hours. Have gone slightly above NBM
PoPs, with showers likely for the entire forecast area, mainly in
the afternoon and evening. Models have nudged SBCAPEs upward from 24
hours ago, with some areas above 2000 J/kg. The approaching
shortwave, although not passing through until nighttime, will still
promote some steepening of mid-level lapse rates. Additionally,
there`s now increasing model support for enhanced synoptic lift via
upper jet streak positioning. Considering all of this with progged
35-45kt 0-6km shear, there could be strong to severe thunderstorms
during this event. The timing of the shortwave and jet streak lift
might be a little too late to efficiently enhance convection, but
there should at least be a decent amount of SBCAPE for the cold
front to work with given the anticipated temperatures and dewpoints.
850mb temps rise to around 16-17C, yielding highs in the lower 90s
in the typically warmest spots, with middle and upper 80s for most
other locations. Dewpoints generally in the mid 60s.

High pressure builds in from the NW during the weekend with dry
conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High temperatures still
above normal on Saturday, then closer to normal on Sunday as low
level winds and stronger subsidence help limit the mixing depth.
High pressure hangs on for another dry day for Monday with
temperatures back on the rise. Next chance of showers and
thunderstorms follow for Monday night and Tuesday between potential
convection riding over an upper ridge to the west and maybe a
surface trough nearby the area as well. Above-normal temperatures
continue for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak surface trough will remain across the area through
Wednesday.

VFR ceilings during this time, generally 6-8kft.

Sea breezes are on tap during this time for the coastal
locations with a light W/NW flow elsewhere. There remains a low
chance of the sea breeze getting as far north as KHPN. Winds
will go light and variable at all terminals overnight with a
repeat performance for Wednesday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated shower possible this aft/eve. Timing of seabreeze
through Wednesday may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Afternoon-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening
with showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly tranquil conditions persist on the coastal waters with
light winds and seas generally around 2 ft or less through
Thursday.

Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue Friday through
the rest of the forecast period, however gusts and seas on the
ocean on Friday may come close to reaching advisory criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and thunderstorms during Friday afternoon and Friday night
may produce a half inch to an inch of rainfall with the potential of
locally higher amounts. Impacts will most likely be limited to minor
urbanized/poor drainage flooding due to the progressive nature of
the storms cells.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low risk of rip current development is expected on all ocean
beaches for Wednesday. A moderate risk is anticipated for Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/JC
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...