171
FXUS66 KOTX 080921
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
221 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a
weak system sliding through Sunday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Temperatures above normal will continue though much
of the week, with cooler temperatures by late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today: While temperatures won`t be quite as warm as forecasted a few
days ago, todays temperatures will still be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for early June. Dry and nearly clear skies will start the
weekend with light winds. Overall, a pleasant day to get that yard
work done or head to a park.

Sunday through Sunday night: The forecast continues to change for
Sunday as a shortwave passes over the region. The chance of
thunderstorms has increased over much of the area with MUCAPE
showing between 400-700 J/kg, similar to what was seen at the
beginning of last week. A surface low will bring that instability
with additional moisture. The cloud cover could be the limiting
factor if areas cannot get the afternoon heating. At this time
impacts from thunderstorms are expected to be minor (small hail,
brief downpours, infrequent lightning, and possible thunderstorm
outflow enhanced wind gusts). Temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees
cooler Sunday, but still remain above normal for early/mid June.
Cloud cover will also increase from west to east. /KM

Monday through Saturday: A transient shortwave ridge moves
through the region Monday. A weather disturbance moves over the
front side of the ridge bringing a 20-30% chance of showers to the
north ID Panhandle mainly in the afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday
the cluster analysis of the ensemble models agree on lowering
heights and a more broad westerly flow. A weather disturbance
moves into British Columbia and there is a 20-30% chance of
showers along the Canadian border Tuesday. ECMWF ensemble is
showing some breezy to windy conditions, especially Tuesday. NBM
hasn`t quite caught on to it yet, and have trended winds closer to
the 90th percentile of the NBM wind speeds and gusts. There is a
50% chance or higher of gusts above 30 mph across the Cascade gaps
onto the Columbia Basin, Palouse and Spokane area. By Thursday
there is differing opinions of a trough nearing the Pac NW coast
or a ridge building. It looks that sometime between Friday and
Sunday a trough will move into the region.

Temperatures through the week will remain above average, generally
in the mid 70s to upper 80s and then will decrease as we head into
next weekend with near or slightly below average temps by
Saturday. Showers also come back into the forecast Saturday with
the trough influence. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure will promote VFR conditions through at
least Saturday Night. Winds for most of the region will be out of
the north at speeds less than 10 kts. One exception is down the
Okanogan Valley where north winds will gusts to around 20 kts
through Saturday morning. With the incoming system, the region can
expect increasing mid to high level clouds Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least
Saturday Night.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        83  56  80  54  81  55 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  81  53  78  53  78  53 /   0   0   0  20   0   0
Pullman        80  56  74  53  75  52 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Lewiston       89  62  84  60  86  59 /   0   0  10  20   0   0
Colville       83  50  80  49  82  49 /   0   0  10  30   0   0
Sandpoint      79  51  75  52  75  51 /   0   0  10  30  10   0
Kellogg        79  56  76  56  74  54 /   0   0  10  20  10   0
Moses Lake     90  59  86  56  87  55 /   0   0  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      88  64  85  59  84  59 /   0  10  20  10   0   0
Omak           89  60  85  54  88  54 /   0  10  20  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$