176
FXUS66 KOTX 070920
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
220 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a
weak system sliding through Sunday. A gradual cooling is
anticipated for early next week and breezy conditions returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night: High pressure will lead to a warming
and continued drying trend through Saturday. With a bulk of the heat
remaining to our south and not expanding as north as previously
forecasted. High temperatures Friday will be a couple degrees warmer
than what you experienced yesterday, warming again on Saturday
another 3 to 5 degrees, with most of the region seeing upper 80s to
a few lower 90s. The likelihood of Spokane seeing it`s first 90
degree day is trending less. With low temperatures tonight trending
warmer than forecasted, nighttime lows have been slightly increased
for the next few nights.

Sunday through Sunday night: Changes arrive Sunday with a shortwave
passing over the region. As this passes through, there will be some
instability in the atmosphere along with atmospheric moisture that
could lead to isolated thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle and
Eastern Washington. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday, but still
remain above normal for early/mid June. Cloud cover will also
increase from west to east. /KM

Monday through Friday: The trough exits to the east and another
weak wave will quickly move through the region on the frontside of
a shortwave ridge pushing through. This will provide a 20-30%
chance of showers and a 20% chance of thunderstorms to extreme
northeast WA and the northern ID Panhandle in the afternoon.
There will be less cloud cover than Sunday, and with the transient
ridge pushing in, temperatures will be similar or a couple
degrees warmer than Sunday.

Tuesday and Wednesday the cluster analysis shows a flatter
solution of broad westerly flow. Thursday the models start to
diverge on whether a broad ridge sets up or if a trough from the
parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will push towards the west coast.
Both solutions are dry, the difference would be how warm we get.
By Friday, more ensemble models are on board with the trough
approaching, or moving into the Pac NW. It is about a 55/45 split
of the models with warmer drier vs cooler wetter. Have an increase
in clouds beginning Thursday afternoon and have showers and
thunderstorms in for Friday afternoon across northern WA and the
north ID Panhandle.

Temperatures will cool through the week so that by Thursday we
will be around average and Friday below average. Winds will be
breezy to locally windy each afternoon and night across central
WA. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will increase in near
KOMK this morning, with gusts to 35 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least
Saturday Night.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  52  84  57  81  58 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  79  49  82  55  80  57 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        78  49  80  55  78  55 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Lewiston       87  58  90  63  86  63 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Colville       80  45  84  50  83  53 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Sandpoint      78  45  80  51  78  54 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Kellogg        76  52  80  57  77  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     87  54  90  61  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Wenatchee      85  58  88  65  85  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Omak           85  54  89  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$