272
FXUS65 KREV 100921
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
221 AM PDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Temperatures across the region expect to rise again this week
with near record values possible on Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday in some locations. Areas along and south of US-50 may
also see a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening today and tomorrow. A cooling
trend with increased winds looks likely going into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest RAP analysis shows the axis of an upper air trough over
the eastern portion of the CWA with a trailing ridge to the east and
a low to the west of the Baja Peninsula this morning. Current
satellite imagery along with surface observations report generally
clear skies over the CWA with dry conditions following Sunday`s
precipitation. Going through today, models are forecasting the
upper air trough departing eastward allowing for the western ridge
to advance over the CWA during the day as well as cut off the
southwestern low. With this pattern aloft, slightly warmer daytime
highs could be expected at the surface with western NV seeing
highs range from the upper 80s to middle 90s while the CA portion
of the CWA sees highs generally in the 80s to lower 90s. As for
precipitation chances, models are showing a 10-20% chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening along and south of US-50 within the region. Better chances
for rumbles of thunder may be closer to the Sierra Mountains with
models showing 200-300 J/kg of MLCAPE during the evening, but not
anticipating severe weather at this time. Any precipitation that
occurs also looks to yield minimal moisture with QPF values
generally less than 0.1 inches. Overnight low temperatures for the
region expect to be around 2-5 degrees warmer than Sunday night`s
lows.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, forecast guidance shows the CWA keeping
the ridge over the CWA as it broadens across the western two-thirds
of the CONUS with the cutoff low remaining generally in place off
the coast of the Baja Peninsula. On Thursday, models then project
the cutoff low to move northeast across southern CA during the
day and over the southern tip of NV overnight. The main story at
the surface continues to be the above normal temperatures that
may reach near the record values of a 1940 heatwave within the
region. When looking at NBM probabilities for 100 degrees or more
for the Reno-Tahoe International Airport (KRNO), there appears
to be less than a 10% chance for triple digit temperatures on
Tuesday and Thursday. But, KRNO sees around a 20% chance for
reaching the 100 degree mark for high temperatures as this looks
to be the hottest day of the week. The NWS HeatRisk product shows
generally minor to moderate impacts related to heat across the CWA
with some isolated high impact areas in western NV during the
period of Tuesday through Thursday. It is definitely recommended
to be prepared for this upcoming heat and to take precautions if
you plan on being outdoors in the middle of the week. Make sure to
stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and wear light clothing in order
to avoid heat related illnesses. While Wednesday and Thursday look
to be mostly dry at this time, Alpine and Mono Counties may see
up to around a 15% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday.

Going into and through the weekend, ensemble guidance shows an upper
air trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and pushing the ridge
feature off to the east on Friday. This new trough continues its
advance into the northwestern CONUS on Saturday with the CWA being
underneath the trough`s base by the evening hours. On Sunday, the
CWA stays under the base of the trough with the trough`s axis
making its way over the CWA during the evening hours. At the
surface, models are showing a potential cold front passing through
the region on Friday allowing for a cooling trend to persist
through the weekend along with some breezier winds. Forecast
guidance continues to show lower chances for precipitation at this
time due to a dry airmass moving into the region, but this will
be monitored in case this starts to change in future model runs.
-078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are anticipated for the REV TAF sites going through
Monday with the western NV sites seeing northwesterly gusts up to
around 18 kts beginning around 00Z that look to last a few hours.
Southern portions of the region along and south of US-50 may see
up to around a 20% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms
during the late afternoon and evening hours of Monday, but not
anticipating impacts at TAF sites at this time. Density altitude
concerns continue today through the remainder of the work week
with temperatures staying well above average. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$