914
FXUS65 KRIW 121722
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions today, as
  wind gusts up to 35 mph develop across the CWA by midday.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
  and Friday.

- A strong storm system could impact the region Monday, cooling
  temperatures back to seasonal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A zonal flow pattern will be in place today, with above normal
temperatures and dry conditions occurring across the CWA. Winds will
be stronger today, with gusts up to 35 mph across the forecast area.
Higher gusts of 40 to 50 mph will occur in the Absaroka, Wind River
and Bighorn Mountains. High temperatures in the 90s will also be
much more widespread east of the Divide and RH values in the teens
once again. These conditions will once again result in elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions. Agricultural burning of any
kind is highly discouraged today. High-based showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the WY/CO border this
afternoon as well. Strong outflow winds due to dry microbursts will
be the main threat from this activity.

A strong high center over AZ/NM will rebuild and push
its ridge axis over the Northern Rockies Thursday into Friday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could occur over central portions
of the CWA late in the afternoon into the evening. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday, as an upper level low
from the Desert Southwest surges northward. A longwave trough will
build over the PACNW and EPAC over the weekend, resulting in
southwest flow aloft over the Cowboy State. This could bring
elevated fire weather conditions again to much of the CWA. Strong
winds could occur over the Wind Corridor Monday afternoon, as a cold
low approaches the region. Elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions could occur again from Sweetwater to Natrona County, as a
strong cold front associated with the low makes its way eastward
across the CWA. Snow could also occur over the western mountains
above 8500 ft during the afternoon into the evening, as the upper
low moves over the area toward the Dakotas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through the forecast
period. The primary aviation hazard Wednesday afternoon and early
evening will be westerly surface wind 18G30kts. Mid-level winds mix
to the surface between 18Z-21Z and persist until decoupling around
03Z/Thursday. A few pockets of cumulus over the mountains Wednesday
afternoon with isolated convection coming off the Uinta Mountains
and hugging the UT/CO border south of KRKS. Given temperature-dew
point spreads, outflow gusts 40-50kts are likely in this region
through sunset.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

West winds will begin to increase over zones 280/286/288 after
0800 this morning, spreading across the rest of the forecast
area through the rest of the morning. Gusts up to 35 mph will be
common this afternoon, with gusts of 40 to 50 mph occurring in
zones 285/286/288. Critical RH values will also occur across
portions of the Bighorn and Wind River Basins, and zones
277/278/279/280/289. These conditions will result in elevated
to near- critical fire weather conditions today. Agricultural
burning of any kind is highly discouraged today. Although
temperatures will still be above normal on Thursday, winds will
be weaker and RH values in the teens will be pushed south to
zones 277/278/279/289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LaVoie
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...LaVoie