497
FXUS64 KSJT 120610
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
110 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Line of showers and thunderstorms, associated with an outflow
boundary from earlier storms...extended along a Menard to Mason
to San Saba line early this afternoon. Movement was southeast.

These storms will slowly develop southeast toward Junction this
afternoon. The SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from
Sonora to Junction to Mason this afternoon/evening...where SBCAPES
are around 2000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shears around 35 KTS. An isolated
severe storm possible. Main hazards are damaging winds and large
hail. Could also see a strong/possible severe storm from Big Lake
to Ozona to Sonora...where a outflow boundary and enhanced
cumulus is visible.

Elsewhere, just to the north of Haskell is a nearly stationary
MVC. This may kick off isolated thunderstorms through this
evening in the Big Country, and possibly into Wednesday. Kept a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in east/southeastern section of
the county warning area Wednesday, with remnant outflow
boundaries and afternoon heating.

Clouds temporarily return late tonight as a moist boundary layer
is in place. This will scatter out mid to late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will
slowly shift east, toward West Central Texas into the weekend,
resulting in drier conditions and a steady increase in temperatures.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low 90s to upper 90s, with highs
this weekend in the mid 90s to near 100. Even hotter temperatures
are forecast for the start of next week, with highs in the upper 90s
to 102 for most locations. Overnight lows will generally be in the
70s. Unfortunately, dry conditions look to persist into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR Conditions are expected through the first few hours of this
TAF package, then MVFR ceilings are expected to work their way
into all terminals early this morning through the 1500Z to
2000Z time frame. Light and variable winds will persist through
this morning becoming more south to southeasterly around 10 knots
by noon time today. May see a shower or two return for JCT and BBD
area this morning, but uncertainty is still too high to include
in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71  96  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    72  95  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   70  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  71  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...TP