644
FXUS64 KSJT 110750
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
250 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Moist and unstable air mass continues across West Central Texas
this afternoon, with scattered convection already developing
across portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Very little
movement from the storms, so heavy rainfall the main concern so
far. As we get a little later in the afternoon and a little
warmer, a few of the storms may pulse up and produce some
marginally severe hail.

We will also watch for the possibility of more development of
storms and the formation of another small MCS out to the west that
may move southeast and back across the area this evening and into
early Tuesday morning. Weak upper low continues to spin across
Eastern New Mexico and this is expected to drift southeast into
the area tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, portions of West Central
Texas south of the low may be unstable enough to generate a few
stronger storms that may eventually form into another southeast
moving MCS and roll into the Hill Country.

Finally, more abundant cloud cover will continue to help keep
temperatures in check, mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s across

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The upper-level shortwave trough that brought us some showers and
thunderstorms during the first half of this week will begin to
exit the area to the southeast and allow high pressure to begin
building back across West Central Texas through the remainder of
the week and weekend. This will lead to a transition from warm and
wet weather to more hot and dry conditions through the weekend and
into early next week. Afternoon high temperatures will start off
in the mid 80s to 90s on Wednesday, and gradually warm into the
mid 90s to near 102 by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few hours of
MVFR ceilings are possible at the terminals, especially KABI for a
few hours Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across much of the area Tuesday afternoon and early evening and
have thunder at all the terminals. The winds will be light besides
variable/gusty around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  68  87  69 /  70  20  10   0
San Angelo  91  69  91  71 /  50  20  10   0
Junction    92  71  91  71 /  50  30  10   0
Brownwood   84  68  86  69 /  60  30  10   0
Sweetwater  85  68  88  71 /  60  20   0   0
Ozona       92  70  91  71 /  30  20  10   0
Brady       84  69  85  70 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21