Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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311 FXUS65 KTFX 112102 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 302 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy to windy conditions are expected over the next couple of days while temperatures generally run above average. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive this weekend as another weather system moves through the area bringing cooler and windier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight thru Wednesday... Breezy conditions will continue over the next couple days as temperatures remain well above average. Overall the strongest winds are expected before midnight tonight. When looking at the potential for high wind, a stray gust above 60 mph cannot be ruled out along the lower elevations of the Rocky Mountain Front. But the probabilities of widespread impacts for both the lower and higher criteria zones makes it difficult to justify going with a high wind warning at this point in time. Thus, an SPS has been issued for the Browning and Cut Bank areas which should cover the main threat. Otherwise, winds will start to taper off later in the afternoon on Wednesday into the evening. Thursday and beyond... Another brief period of transient ridging aloft will bring calmer winds and continued dry conditions for Thursday and much of Friday before another Pacific trough brings unsettled conditions next weekend. Although uncertainty remains with the specifics of this system, most ensembles favor the primary circulation and moisture staying north in Canada, which reduces the likelihood for widespread rainfall for North-central and Southwest Montana. The first opportunity for precipitation comes later Friday into Saturday when southwesterly flow and a cold frontal passage encourage a period of shower and thunderstorm development. Breezy to windy conditions and cooling temperatures are then expected for the remainder of the weekend with another chance for scattered showers late Sunday into Monday. - RCG && .AVIATION... 11/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the period. Expect increasing winds this afternoon over North Central MT, with the windy conditions continuing into Wednesday. The Chinook arch is currently breaking down, with generally just passing mid/high level clouds expected through the period. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 50 76 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 47 70 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 53 79 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 49 79 43 81 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 42 76 37 79 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 47 80 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 53 76 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 48 74 43 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls