993
FXUS64 KTSA 111548
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1048 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Warming trend continues today with high temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s. Scattered high clouds will persist this afternoon
as MCS tracks southeast across north Texas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Weak upper low currently centered over the TX Panhandle will track
southeastward today while gradually opening into a minor wave
across E TX by Wed. morning. Guidance is in good agreement that
the precip shield associated with the wave will remain just south
and west of far SE OK with a few brief light showers extending
into eastern OK. The forecast will remain dry today for the local
forecast area with temps near or a few degrees warmer than Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Ridging aloft strengthens through the southern Plains Wed. -
Thurs. and the expanding low level thermal ridge will support a
notable warming trend area wide. A stronger wave will pass across
the northern Plains on Thursday with the attendant surface trough
sliding through the forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Initial frontal convection located across the
central Plains will struggle to be maintained southward as ridging
aloft / warm mid level temps suppress convective potential and
guidance remains in good agreement that precip chances will remain
very low with the frontal passage. Temperatures will remain well
above normal through the weekend with no cooling expected as the
boundary passes.

A stronger wave is expected to pass through the Plains Saturday
into Sunday, however at this time the primary precip corridor is
expected north of the local region. The wave will help shunt the
upper ridge eastward by early next week and resultant flow is
expected to allow a surge of deep tropical moisture into the
region. This would allow a return of rain chances and slightly
cooler temps for early next week. The reprieve from the early
season heat is likely to be brief as upper ridging strengthens
across the region by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Few to broken mid and high clouds are expected across the CWA
today as a shortwave slides southeast through Texas. Cloud cover
tonight should begin to scatter out from north to south with the
wave pushing farther from the CWA. In response...some guidance
tries to develop some patchy areas of reduced visibility late
tonight. For now will hold off on mentioning until conditions
become more certain. Winds through the period are forecast to
remain light/variable.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   87  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   87  64  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   86  62  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   84  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   83  61  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   84  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   84  61  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
F10   84  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   84  64  86  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20