444
FXUS64 KTSA 101514
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1014 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1008 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A few lingering showers across far southeast OK will wind down in
the next couple of hours as elevated forcing moves out of the
area. Otherwise, scattered clouds, light winds, and mild
temperatures will prevail for the remainder of the day. Highs will
max out in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the 50s to 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The cooler conditions are forecast to continue into Tuesday before
surface high pressure exits to the east/northeast. In the wake of
the departing high pressure...a weak shortwave is progged to drop
southeast across the Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. With
influence of high pressure not expected to exit until Tuesday
afternoon/evening...the track of the weak shortwave is progged to
now be more southwest of the CWA. Thus...shower/storm chances now
look to remain west and southwest of the CWA into Wednesday. In
response...the temperature warming trend is now forecast to begin
Wednesday for the CWA and continue into the weekend.

Warm and more humid conditions increase late week and the weekend
with heat index values of mid 90s to around 100 deg as a ridge of
high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. This ridge should
keep a shortwave lifting out of the Desert Southwest during the
weekend to the northwest of the CWA. Thus...no significant precip
chances are in the forecast through the weekend. One thing to
note...is just outside of this forecast package...latest extended
model solutions indicate an area of low pressure lifting
northward from the Gulf into the region for early next week. This
will be something to monitor over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Isolated dense fog has developed across far NW AR while a corridor
of low VFR ceilings remains from west central AR through SE OK.
The trend through the morning will be for the lower clouds to
clear from north to south while high clouds remain. Fog will erode
by mid morning. VFR conditions are expected through much of the
forecast period with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  62  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   85  63  85  64 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   85  58  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   83  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   81  57  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   85  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   83  57  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   85  62  85  63 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   83  64  84  64 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07