Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
650 FXUS65 KVEF 080747 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1247 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast, ending the worst of the heat wave. However, hotter temperatures are expected to return for the middle of the upcoming week before falling again late in the week. && .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed mid and high clouds from north of Barstow through Death Valley and across Nye County into Lincoln County. The coldest cloud tops, remnants of thunderstorms which persisted into late evening, were over central Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty winds under and around the dying convection and temperatures a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. For this afternoon, forecast HeatRisk values continue to trend slowly downward, and the leftover clouds could influence this as well. Regardless, will keep the Excessive Heat Warning in place through this evening. The worst of this heat wave has passed, but with little or no overnight relief, heat stress could still be accumulating in vulnerable groups. High temperatures will be a few degrees lower today than yesterday and a few degrees lower Sunday than today, with highs Sunday approximately seven to 10 degrees cooler than at the peak of the heat wave on Thursday. High resolution models continue the trend of showing fewer thunderstorms today than yesterday and fewer still on Sunday, with chances both days likely confined to the Sierra crest and the northern fringes of our CWA. Breezy southerly winds each afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger, but will not be enough to cause red flag conditions. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. A trough of low pressure will cut off near the Baja California coast early in the week. As it drifts off the coast, high pressure will wrap around and build over the CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing hot temperatures again to the region. Temperatures may return to around 10 degrees above climatological normal by Wednesday. The cutoff low finally ejects northeastward on Thursday, dampening the ridge and bringing gusty southerly wind to the area. This will also begin a slight cooling trend and the low moves in and weakens. While this cutoff low will develop over the ocean, it doesn`t seem to have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will have considerable dynamics associated with it. Thunderstorms, perhaps dry thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but it is early and we`ll have to see how the forecast develops over the next several days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will give way to SE breezes later this morning. Chance of 10+ knot sustained winds remains below 50% until 21z. SE breezes of 8-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are likely (75% chance) from 21z through about 00z-01z, when winds are expected to shift to the SSW. SSW breezes persist through the night, gradually weakening with time. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds, with bases aoa 12 kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south-southeast winds at most area TAF sites late this morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. The exception to this is KDAG, where the wind direction will be west or southwest through the period. At KBIH, vicinity convection may send westerly or northwesterly outflow through the airport this afternoon. Rain chances currently stand at 25%, but the chance of outflow winds reaching the airfield are closer to 50-60%. Scattered clouds around 10 kft with broken clouds above, while the rest of the sites should only see FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for today, June 8. RECORD HIGH SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Las Vegas 112(2013) Bishop 105(2016) Needles 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 113(2013) Kingman 107(1955) Death Valley 123(2013) RECORD WARM SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Las Vegas 84(2016) Bishop 64(2014) Needles 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 77(2016) Kingman 74(1927) Death Valley 94(2022) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Berc AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter