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118
FXUS61 KILN 050835
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
435 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms will occur today ahead of a cold front
crossing east through the region tonight with dry air found in
it`s wake. However, cold air aloft may combine with daytime
heating to produce scattered shower activity on both Thursday
and Friday afternoon in an otherwise dry pattern.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Scattered showers will develop this morning and strengthen by
the late morning, becoming thunderstorms. Coverage is expected
to increase through the day. However, a few models are showing
little precip over the CWA through early afternoon.

A significantly moist lower atmosphere will mix early today with
convection initiating due to daytime heating. Marginal CAPE
values and shear noted in the warm air suggest activity would
remain scattered but storms that develop could be persistent
with a nne movement. Whether storms begin to fire before or a
little after noon is still in question, getting through the day
without one is not a likely scenario.

Some storms will have a potential for strong downburst winds
this afternoon.

Highs will be a touch lower than yesterday, ranging from near
80 in the southwest to the mid 80s in the north and northeast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Thunderstorm activity will be ongoing this evening, with the
forcing ahead of the approaching cold front increasing the
potential for damaging winds. The cold front will cross in the
late evening in the west, a little after midnight in the east.
As it does pass, any precip will rapidly come to an end.

Low temperatures will range from 60 in the west to 65 in the
east with decreasing cloud cover.

Upper level energy nosing into northern Ohio from a deep low
pressure center in the northern Great Lakes could combine with
an overturning atmosphere due to cold air aloft to spark
afternoon showers, moreso in eastern and northern CWA. This
scenario will need to overcome a dry lower atmosphere which is
well established in the post-frontal environment.

Highs will be a degree or two on either side of 80, warmest in
northern Kentucky.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure offering a dry
period Thursday night into the first part of Friday. The flow
around a mid level low settling into the eastern Great Lakes may
lead to a few showers over the far northeast. This chance will
be diurnally driven Friday and Saturday afternoon with only
slight chance pops.

Energy rotating around the mid level low will result in a hang
back trof/new low over the Great Lakes late this weekend into
early next week. Considerable model solution spread is observed
in the depth of this trof and how progressive this is.
Deterministic GFS is more progressive than the ECMWF but the GFS
ensemble shows more of a lingering trof - which is more similar
to the deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble solution.

Have slight chance to chance pops Sunday and Monday with a
diurnal uptick during the afternoon. Have a dry forecast Tuesday
as minor ridging builds into the area.

Temperatures look to trend below normal Friday with highs
ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s and then near normal
Saturday and Sunday and Monday when readings are expected to top
out between 75 and 80. Only a rise of a couple of degrees are
expected for Tuesday with reading still close to normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected until scattered showers develop over
southwest CWA and CVG/LUK in the morning, spreading northeast
and developing into thunderstorms. A significant set of models
are relatively rain-free over the CWA through 18Z and then begin
ramping up the convection for the rest of the afternoon into the
evening hours. Activity will be most concentrated immediately
ahead of a cold front, and end as the front passes in the latter
part of the evening.

Did not introduce MVFR cigs until after 17-18Z, a little later
towards 19-20Z further northeast at ILN and CMH/LCK. Showers and
thunderstorms will become widespread for a few hours beginning
in the late day and ending later in the evening with the passage
of a cold front.

There`s still a not insignificant amount of uncertainty in how
showers/storms will evolve during the day in the warm sector.
Next round of model data may not begin to capture these storms
appropriately and forecast will rely heavily on how/when
development begins and then move forward from there.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs/vsbys may occur in showers and
thunderstorms that are possible Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks