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022
FXUS62 KRAH 111756
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure over the Ohio River Valley will drift east,
eventually moving offshore by Wednesday night. Friday could be the
hottest day of the year so far before a cold front brings some
cooler temperatures for the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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As of 155 PM Tuesday...

Diurnal cumulus is beginning to fill in this afternoon across the
forecast area. Forecast soundings still show a very narrow layer of
saturation occurring late in the afternoon into the early evening
hours. 00Z high-resolution models showed some small areas of
precipitation just skirting eastern Halifax and Edgecombe counties,
and more recent high-resolution models have managed to even trim
that coverage a bit more, keeping precipitation east of the forecast
area. Have decided to keep the minimal pops in the forecast, which
peak during the late afternoon, with any mention of showers/storms
removed from the forecast after sunset. Overnight lows should be
similar to last night, with values ranging from the mid 50s to the
mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 155 PM Tuesday...

A broad surface high will be over the mid-Atlantic states,
continuing to bring an easterly component to the low level wind.
Dewpoints will start to rise a bit, with nearly all locations into
the 60s. There will still be minimal forcing for ascent, so the
forecast remains dry in all locations, although there will likely be
greater coverage of diurnal cumulus clouds during the day. With wind
out of the southeast, highs will creep up a couple degrees on
Wednesday, with all locations in the 80s and a few southern
locations touching the 90 degree mark. Similarly, all locations will
fall in the 60s Wednesday night.
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&&


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Tuesday...

A mostly dry and warm extended period is expected under the
influence of increasingly strong mid/upper ridging.

Thursday will be dry and mostly sunny with a continued warming trend
as surface high pressure initially to our north moves offshore into
the western Atlantic and we become influenced by weak return flow.
High temperatures will be in the upper-80s to lower-90s with lows
Thursday night in the mid-to-upper-60s. Meanwhile a low will slowly
drift NE off the GA/SC/NC coast from Thursday into Friday night. A
northern stream trough will also move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast US during this period. However, forcing from both features
looks to largely miss central NC. The trough will pass well to our
north, and by the time the cold front crosses our area it will be
devoid of any upper forcing. The timing of the front (Friday
night/Saturday morning) also does not look optimal for showers and
storms. The GFS has a more tightly-wound coastal low compared to
other guidance (including its own ensembles), but even it largely
keeps any rain largely confined to the immediate coast. So only have
increasing clouds on Friday/Friday night, with just slight chance
POPs in the extreme SE. Friday looks to be the hottest day of the
period, with highs in the lower-to-mid-90s and lows in the upper-60s
to lower-70s.

Forecast confidence decreases a bit this weekend as the cold front
looks to stall somewhere south of the area and cool high pressure
builds down from SE Canada and the Northeast US. Models have trended
slightly cooler as the raw 00z GFS and ECMWF now only have highs in
the 80s in many parts of central NC on Saturday and Sunday. They
have also trended drier with dew points only in the 50s. Given these
trends, opted to undercut the NBM a bit with temperatures and dew
points. Saturday`s forecast highs are upper-80s to mid-90s and
Sunday`s are mid-80s to lower-90s. This is subject to change and
could even drop further if model trends continue. Precipitation
chances also look minimal at best with the cold front to our south
and an anomalous mid/upper ridge building into the Deep South and TN
Valley. Only continue slight chance POPs in the far SE on Saturday
and none on Sunday. By Monday, a disturbance in the western Gulf of
Mexico could begin to spread moisture to its north, but at this time
it looks to stay largely west of us as the center of the ridge moves
overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Aside from some patchy fog early Wednesday morning, expect
predominately dry, VFR conditions through the forecast period.
Diurnal heating and lift underneath a rather strong mid level
capping inversion will result in the development of an extensive
strato cu field this afternoon, and especially Wednesday. Light
northerly winds today will become south or southeasterly Wednesday.

Outlook: Generally dry fair weather is expected through the weekend,
with the potential for some late night/daybreak fog and stratus.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CBL