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371
FXUS62 KTBW 121915
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
315 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Drier air to the north and an extremely moist airmass to the south.
Today`s weather has been dramatically different across a relatively
small geographic region. Central Florida has been the transition
zone between a continental and tropical airmass. A shortwave over
the deep south is forcing the drier continental air south into the
northern Gulf and across the northern half of the peninsula as a
tropical wave lifts over the southern half of the state. In
response, TPA ACARS soundings are showing a PW of 1.65 inches. By
contrast, KRSW is showing 2.65 inches.

Southwest Florida continues to be favored for heavy rainfall through
at least tomorrow. Meanwhile, it looks more like convection will be
more scattered across Central and N Florida, developing along the
seabreeze boundary this afternoon. The moisture axis may still lift
northward (at least that is the latest thinking) as the tropical
wave propagates to the NE, bringing back a better potential for more
widespread rainfall again tomorrow.

As the weekend approaches and the tropical wave lifts north, ridging
will build back in aloft. This favors more typical diurnal
convection later into the weekend and next week. Once this happens,
the low-level flow will transition from a WSW to a ESE flow. This
typically favors more afternoon/evening convection along the west
coast. However, if the upper-level flow is more NE and advects a
drier airmass aloft in, this may limit the overall convective
potential. For now, though, it looks like decent rainfall coverage
is likely as the rainy season continues into next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A bit of a lull in convection has been noted over the last hour
across SWFL as northern terminals have remained dry. This has lead
to the evolution of the forecasts to show fewer impacts through this
evening at Tampa Bay Area terminals, and even some slight
improvement for SWFL. However, convection remains possible at nearly
anytime with deep tropical moisture in place. MVFR to IFR impacts
are possible, along with some gusty winds, in the vicinity of
storms, especially overnight. This pattern will continue through
at least Friday, before a transition back towards more typical
convection settles in near the weekend.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move across
coastal waters, with hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity.
Otherwise, a W to WSW flow prevails until the weekend.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

No concerns with ample moisture and storm activity to limit fire
activity.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  78  90  78  89 /  50  60  70  90
FMY  76  87  76  87 /  60  90  90 100
GIF  76  89  75  90 /  50  70  50  90
SRQ  77  89  76  89 /  70  80  70  90
BKV  72  92  72  92 /  40  60  70  80
SPG  80  89  80  90 /  60  60  70  90
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery