Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
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778 FXUS63 KABR 091526 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1026 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 50 to 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some storms along and west of the Missouri River may become strong to severe Monday afternoon and evening. - There is a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, mainly along and east of the James River Valley. Some storms may become strong to severe. - Above normal temperatures will return Wednesday-Friday of next week, with highs mainly in the 80s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Not much needed for updates to the forecast through 00Z today. Only thing to watch for will be the increasing mid/high cloud cover across central SD this afternoon, and if any of the shower/thundershower activity now moving into western SD out of MT will eventually find its way into the far western CWA late afternoon or early evening. Current forecast has PoPs entering the picture out west tonight, but will monitor trends to see if any mention of precip needs to be introduced late this afternoon or early evening. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/... Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Surface high pressure will strengthen today into tonight keeping the region dry with seasonable temperatures. As the high shifts farther south and east late tonight into Monday morning, shortwave energy will ride the upper ridge into western SD, and southeast winds will increase ahead of an approaching low. A few showers (<20% chance) may make it as far east as north central SD on a weak llj before drying up by 12z Monday. The sfc front and upper low will push toward central SD between 21z and 0z and could bring strong to severe storms with it, though chances increase Monday evening. There is a marginal to slight risk (1 to 2 out of 5) of severe storms along and west of the Missouri River with this system. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 452 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An active weather pattern can be expected through the long term portion of the forecast. The period begins with an upper level trough and surface low pressure system passing across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Instability and shear are best along and west of the Missouri RIver, with instability waning further east. Still appears as though a few strong to perhaps severe storms will be possible along the frontal boundary over the western CWA, with the severe threat diminishing further east. The convection should be east of the CWA by 15Z Tuesday, with dry conditions possible until Wednesday. On Wednesday, an area of low pressure embedded within nearly zonal flow aloft may bring the next round of thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern half of the CWA. With modest instability and deep layer shear, strong to perhaps severe storms may be possible, depending on timing. The latest deterministic GFS suggests the storm will progress across the CWA during the morning hours, with others have storms in the afternoon and evening hours. By the end of the work week, an upper level trough over the Pac NW will cause southwesterly flow over the northern plains. A couple low pressure systems moving through the region will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The deterministic ECMWF suggests a wet Father`s Day weekend, which is supported by the CPC`s 6-10 day pcpn outlook that favors above average pcpn. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and light winds are expected through tonight. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TMT SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...Wise