475
FXUS61 KALY 151734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
134 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in across the region this afternoon
through the rest of the weekend with seasonable temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels.  Hot and humid weather arrives Monday
and continues through most of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 134 PM EDT...A beautiful mid June day across eastern NY
and western New England, as high pressure is building in from
the northern Great Lakes Region and south- central Ontario over
the region. Expect mostly sunny to sunny skies with a few- sct
cumulus around. The 12Z KALY sounding is much drier compared to
yesterday at 12Z as the PWAT has lowered from 1.52" to 0.60".

It continues to be breezy with good mixing. We kept the winds north
to northwest to east/northeast winds 5-15 mph with some gusts
20-25 mph. Temps will be seasonable with mid and upper 70s in
the valleys and 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear tonight with light to calm winds will allow for
radiational cooling and lows in the 40s with some upper 30s in
parts of the southern Adirondacks. Low level ridging overhead
early Sunday will build east later Sunday. Light south winds
will develop Sunday afternoon, under a mostly sunny sky. Warm
advection will begin later Sunday as well. Highs Sunday in the
70s with near 80 mid Hudson Valley and around 70 higher terrain.

Upper impulse tracks around the northern periphery of amplifying
upper ridging building into our region Later Sunday night and
Monday. Most of the moisture, upper dynamics, and low level jet
forcing tracks near the U.S./Canada border, suggesting any
isolated shower or thunderstorm activity should pass north.

Although, some clouds and convective debris may spread into our
region at times that could filter the sun on Monday. Steady
surface winds from the south to southwest and boundary layer
winds from the west, along with rapid warm advection from the
west, will help temperatures warm well into the 80s Monday, with
near 90 in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region and points
south. Near 90 possible in the western Mohawk Valley, too.

Continued warm advection along with rising surface dew points
Monday night as upper ridging continues to amplify and
strengthen. Lows early Tuesday morning in the mid to upper 60s
with some lower 60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase for a prolonged period of hot and
humid weather across the region throughout the long term period.
Model agreement remains high that a broad area of upper ridging,
including a closed region of high pressure with 500 hPa heights at
nearly 600 dam in both deterministic and ensemble guidance, will
remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic through at least midweek.
While these values may represent only a +2 to +3 sigma anomaly per
NAEFS output, the latest forecast is outside of the CFSR model
climatology for late June, indicating anomalies of this magnitude
have not likely occurred at this time of year in at least the last
three decades. In fact, per SPC sounding climatology at Albany, a
500 hPa height of 600 dam or more has only been observed once (00Z
August 23, 2002).

All this is to say that conditions will remain hot and largely dry
throughout the period, with afternoon highs reaching the 80s to low
90s in high terrain and mid to upper 90s at lower elevations through
at least Thursday. While the forecast does not currently include any
values in the triple digits, a few valley locations exceeding 100
degrees remains a distinct possibility. With surface high pressure
initially located to the east over the North Atlantic, low-level
southerly flow will aid in raising dewpoints into the mid 60s to low
70s, yielding muggy conditions. This high humidity will support
overnight lows remaining very mild as well, as temperatures only
fall into the mid 60s to low 70s across the region each night,
failing to provide much relief from the heat. High temperatures and
humidity together may additionally result in dangerously high heat
indices reaching 100 to 110 degrees for most valley locales Tuesday
through Thursday.

As the upper ridge flattens somewhat Wednesday and beyond, there
remain some indications that isolated diurnal thunderstorms may
affect the region, with any enhanced cloud cover or precipitation
also serving to potentially reduce maximum temperatures. Upper
ridging may finally begin to weaken and give way to more zonal flow
Friday into the weekend, potentially providing some gradual relief
from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday, VFR conditions should prevail through at least
18Z/Sun, with just FEW-SCT clouds with bases of 5000-7000 FT AGL
this afternoon.

Winds will be north to northeast 8-12 KT with a few gusts up to 20-
25 KT this afternoon. Winds will quickly drop off after sunset,
becoming light/variable to calm overnight through mid morning
Sunday. Winds will then become generally southwest to south at less
than 6 KT by early Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Wed Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...KL