Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
326 FXUS62 KCAE 140601 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 201 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid conditions continue - Scattered afternoon storms Satellite imagery shows a gradient in atmospheric moisture over the forecast area this morning, similar to the previous day. Satellite derived PWAT values of up to 2 inches near the coast with the western Midlands and Piedmont range from 1.6 to 1.7. CAMs initiate convection along this gradient in the afternoon, generally favoring the I-20 corridor and east where moisture is deeper. Seasonal pulse type convection will yield a typical low risk of downburst winds and heavy rain. With a very weak wind field storm motion will be slow with may lead to an isolated flood threat, mainly in urban areas. It will be another hot day with temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Drier air in the western Midlands will mix dewpoints into the mid 60s. Convection to the east where moisture is higher should hinder higher temps. So Heat Advisory Criteria is not likely. Storms will subside with loss of daytime heatign with patchy fog possible again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Not as hot with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Upper ridging weakens during the period as an area of low pressure moves across Florida and into the northern Gulf. At the surface, strengthening Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect high moisture into the region. With weaker heights aloft, expect daytime temperatures to be closer to seasonal values for mid-July. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible both days, with slightly higher probabilities on Wednesday as a weakening cold front tries to move in from the north and west. Any thunderstorm has the potential to become strong to marginally severe with downburst winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall possible. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key message(s): - A new ridge builds in from the east, passing overhead and then eventually to the west resulting in warmer temperatures once again. A new upper ridge builds into the Southeastern US late this week, passing overhead Friday or Friday night. Meanwhile, the Bermuda high will continue to advect a warm, moist air mass into the region. This should result in gradually warming temperatures, peaking this weekend, with lower chances of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. One positive aspect of this pattern is that the low pressure in the northern Gulf, being monitored by the NHC for possible development, should continue westward away from the CWA. Near the end of the extended cooler and wetter conditions are possible as the ridge axis moves into the Deep South. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Predominantly VFR conditions over the next 24 hours Early this morning, light winds and abundant low level moisture could allow for stratus or fog to develop in the eastern portions of the forecast area. The HRRR and LAMP guidance indicates some potential for patchy restrictions also focused in the eastern FA. Continued a TEMPO group at OGB which appears to be the most likely to experience some brief vsby/cig restrictions. Restrictions at the other sites are possible but less likely. Expect light winds through the day with scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing. Winds should generally be out of the SE but may be variable for large portions of the day. With scattered storms expected we elected to include a PROB30 group to indicate the potential for convective restrictions and possibly gusty winds. Winds will become light in the evening as daytime convection fizzles. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early morning fog/stratus possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$