Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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708 FXUS62 KCHS 112158 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 558 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The risk for a brief showers or two will persist over mainly Long and McIntosh Counties through sunset. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. The forecast is in good shape and did not require any meaningful changes for the early evening update. Dry high pressure will continue to settle over the area tonight. Aside from a very isolated shower along the far southern GA coast through late afternoon, rain-free conditions expected. Diurnal cumulus will mostly dissipate after sunset but we could see an increase in cirrus from the south overnight. Lows will range from mid 60s inland to lower 70s coastal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Aloft, a broad trough will exit across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, giving way to ridging that extends from the Central United States toward the Southeast. At the sfc, a stationary front will meander just off the Southeast coast mid-week, then slowly nudge further offshore by the weekend. Weak h5 shortwave energy rounding the east-northeast portion of the ridge to the west will be the primary driver for a few showers/thunderstorms to develop across coastal counties Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across coastal Georgia closer to the stalled front and highest moisture-rich environment. However, most areas will remain dry, especially away from the coast. By Friday, some guidance suggests weak low pressure and/or some enhancement to a coastal trough developing off the Southeast Coast near the vicinity of the previously mentioned front/boundary, which could produce a few showers/thunderstorms along coastal locations south of Edisto, SC into southeast Georgia, but much will depend on how far the coastal trough/low is positioned offshore to start off the weekend. The bulk of guidance continues to maintain dry conditions across all inland areas to start off the weekend. High temps in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday will increase to the low-mid 90s Friday as ridging increases from the west. Low temps will range from the upper 60s far inland to the lower 70s near the coast and mid 70s along the beaches both Wednesday and Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep layered ridge will shift across the Southeastern US and prevail through early next week. Weak low pressure offshore should move out into the Atlantic as high pressure builds in from the north. However, there should be enough instability in place each day to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper 90s inland before dropping back down into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 13/00z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through Saturday, although brief flight restrictions can not be ruled out for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm each day. Chances of tempo flight restrictions increase Sunday with greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the region. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure north of the waters will strengthen slightly overnight. Winds will tip back to the NE after sunset when the sea breeze dissipates. Speeds will remain fairly low, but could increase by a couple knots by late tonight as the gradient tightens up a bit. Wednesday through Sunday: Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels as broad high pressure extends across the region from the north while a weak boundary promotes development of a coastal trough/low offshore by the weekend. In general, east-northeast winds around 10-15 kt will be common Wednesday and Thursday. Once the coastal trough/low becomes more defined this weekend, winds should briefly turn west with speeds around 10-15 kt, before shifting back onshore early next week. Seas will average between 2-4 ft through the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$