Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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671 FXUS61 KCTP 090822 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 422 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Persistent northwest flow aloft with a few embedded upper level troughs will keep it cooler and generally breezy with comfortable humidity over the weekend. After a couple chances for showers on Sunday (one during the morning and the second occurring mainly over the northern mountains), expect a reinforcing shot of cool air Monday preceding a warming trend toward the middle and end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface and satellite observations along with model consensus continues to indicate a steady increase in a dual layer of clouds tonight and the next period of showers late tonight into early Sunday morning as another shortwave trough and cold front moves through the region. The showers will be most numerous across the NW part of the state, where they are progged to begin around midnight. Rain showers will then move eastward through central PA between midnight and 8 AM Sunday, gradually diminishing in coverage across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. Most locations will see less than 0.10 inch of rain, with the majority of the measurable precip falling prior to 8 AM. A few showers will linger into the mid-morning hours across the Lower Susq. Skies will be on a clearing trend from mid morning into the afternoon Sunday, making for another pleasant early June day. There could be some isolated to scattered showers or thundershowers in the northern tier during the afternoon and evening (PoPs less than 40 pct), otherwise the afternoon looks dry with continued breezy conditions and relative cool temps for this time of year with highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to near 80 in the southern tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday should be the coolest day of the upcoming 7 days. The approach of a potent shortwave and surface cold front dropping SE from the Great Lakes will bring more clouds than sun, along with some afternoon and evening showers across primarily the Central and NW 2/3 of the state. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper level troughiness over the northeastern United States will keep temperatures below normal through Wednesday. After that, we should see a moderating trend through the mid to late week with 90s possible in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Mainly dry conditions from Tuesday through Thursday as a lack of moisture will leave central PA in a position where showers will struggle to develop despite the upper level low and progressive troughing pattern. There could be some showers and t-storms by late week, as cold fronts drop southeastward across the area by Friday afternoon. Low level moisture appears to still be limited at this point. However, past experience is that such a pattern provides the potential for isolated strong storms if moisture gets advected into the area. Given the variance in guidance that far out moisture trends will need to be monitored as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Thickening clouds and lowering ceilings will continue to overspread central PA early this morning, ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain showers will be most numerous across northern PA with areas southeast seeing some approach by daybreak. Expect a period of LLWS over the western highlands and central mtns overnight as a 35-40kt southwesterly jet passes overhead, and this is noted in the TAFs. Additionally, there is a good chance (~70%) that ceilings over the western highlands (BFD, JST) will flirt with IFR conds by daybreak or shortly thereafter. Farther to the east, the central mtns (AOO, UNV, IPT) could see a period of MVFR cigs, while the Lower Susq Valley (MDT, LNS) should remain predominantly VFR through the TAF period. Clouds will gradually dissipate on Sunday, as the cold front slips to our southeast and drier air works back into central PA. We should see VFR conds areawide by Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Mon...Spotty showers and MVFR cigs poss, mainly north. Tue-Thu...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert NEAR TERM...Gartner/Colbert SHORT TERM...Gartner/Colbert LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen AVIATION...Guseman/Evanego